Ashland Global (ASH)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.93-0.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 28, 2026, Ashland Inc. (“Ashland”) announced preliminary third quarter results, which are discussed in more detail in the news release (the “News Release”) attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K (“Form 8-K”) as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference into this
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may show worse efficiency and financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $50 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $50 million.
Why it matters: Keeping cash flow strong is important. It helps with finances and spending.
Supportive ifFree Cash Flow was above $15 million in Q3. This supports the target.
Worry ifOngoing Free Cash Flow drops below $10 million in Q3, indicating potential issues.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow conversion shows good money management. It also shows efficiency.
Supportive ifOngoing Free Cash Flow conversion rates stay above 50% in Q4.
Worry ifConversion rates are below 50%. This shows cash flow problems.
Why it matters: A successful increase is key for stable operations. It can help make more money.
Watch forManagement says the ramp-up is going well. Productivity is better at the Hopewell site.
Also watch forThere are still delays in the ramp-up at the Hopewell facility.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$105 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,417 loss on $10,000 · 24.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong demand and good execution.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 revenue reported at or above $1,835 million.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 revenue was below $1,800 million.
Why it matters: Updates will show how Ashland deals with global risks that affect its work.
Watch forGood updates on supply chain strength and customer service.
Also watch forBad updates show supply chain problems or lower service levels.
Why it matters: Meeting the sales target confirms strong demand and effective pricing strategies. It shows Ashland is on track for growth.
Supportive ifQ4 sales reach or exceed $1,835 million, confirming growth momentum.
Worry ifQ4 sales are below $1,835 million. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong demand. It would also show good execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported between $1,835 million and $1,870 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $1,835 million.
Why it matters: New directors may help improve decisions and how the company runs.
Supportive ifThere are positive changes in governance or strategy after new members join.
Worry ifNo clear changes in governance or strategy after new board members join.
Why it matters: Sales growth is crucial for Ashland to stay on track for its $1,835-$1,870 million target.
Supportive ifQ3 sales were $482 million or more. This shows ongoing growth.
Worry ifQ3 sales fall below $450 million, suggesting a slowdown in growth.
Why it matters: Growth in Life Sciences helps Ashland's plan. It may also boost overall profits.
Supportive ifLife Sciences sales growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifLife Sciences sales growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Weak sales in the Middle East may show wider market problems. This could hurt overall performance.
Worry ifSales from the Middle East fell a lot because of geopolitical tensions.
Less concerning ifSales from the Middle East are steady or increasing. This is true even with tensions.
Why it matters: Success in these strategies will drive growth in key segments like Life Sciences and Personal Care.
Supportive ifContinued sales growth in Life Sciences and Personal Care segments.
Worry ifSales do not grow or fall in these segments. This shows a failed strategy.
Why it matters: This is a key target for management. Missing it would signal ongoing operational challenges.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was less than $385 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA was at or above $385 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for meeting the full-year target. A miss could raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth was below 7% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 7% year-over-year.
Why it matters: New board members may bring new ideas that improve strategy and governance.
Supportive ifPublic statements or reports show contributions from new board members.
Worry ifNo important changes in board dynamics are reported.