Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1356.65-9.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
53.73 → 56.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 21 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 23 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASML yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings per share growth to $43.19 in FY27 | Profit per share is forecast to rise from $31.83 in 2026 to $43.19 in 2027. | Intact | EPS falls below $31 in FY26 or fails to rise toward $43 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ASML is a growth-sensitive technology business, but this snapshot does not provide enough company-specific evidence to classify its longer-term investment type with confidence. The thesis state is insufficient, so the multi-year view remains uncertain rather than clearly strengthened or weakened.
The valuation label recently changed to full, suggesting less room for disappointment than when valuation was not assessed. The snapshot gives no peer comparison or detail on market expectations, so the expectations gap cannot be judged more precisely.
There is not enough recent financial-performance history here to establish ASML’s fundamental trajectory. Near term, the stated miss risk is low, but the evidence notes that the company and industry peers have missed lately and that ASML had a deep miss in its recent history.
The near-term setup could improve if the Fed begins cutting rates or major technology companies stabilize with steady results and guidance. A material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.1%, especially below 2%, is a stated risk for growth-sensitive technology businesses.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis is unresolved: valuation is labeled full, but the snapshot lacks enough company-specific financial evidence to assess execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in ASML Holding N.V.'s published investment case. The stated target is Sustain active partnerships and AI stake progress. |
| Intact |
| Loss of key partnerships or failure to advance AI initiatives |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to nearly $49B in FY27 | A primary condition in ASML Holding N.V.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $48.9B. | Improving | Revenue falls below $39B in FY26 or fails to grow toward $49B in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$50.76 → $56.84 · observed estimates
$53.70B → $57.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $50.76 | $53,695,353,860 | 35 / 39 |
| 2026-07-25 | $50.92 | $53,842,730,790 | 35 / 39 |
| 2026-07-26 | $50.92 | $53,842,730,790 | 35 / 39 |
| 2026-07-27 | $52.02 | $54,796,466,848 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-07-28 | $50.92 | $53,842,730,790 | 35 / 39 |
| 2026-07-29 | $50.92 | $53,842,738,480 | 35 / 39 |
| 2026-07-30 | $50.92 | $53,842,738,480 | 35 / 39 |
| 2026-07-31 | $50.92 | $53,842,738,480 | 35 / 39 |
| 2026-08-01 | $51.09 | $53,842,738,480 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-02 | $51.09 | $53,842,738,480 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-03 | $51.09 | $53,842,738,480 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-04 | $51.09 | $53,842,738,480 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-05 | $51.09 | $54,090,943,610 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-06 | $51.09 | $53,842,738,480 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-07 | $52.30 | $55,027,379,777 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-08-08 | $51.42 | $54,331,121,810 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-09 | $51.42 | $54,331,121,810 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-10 | $51.42 | $54,331,121,810 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-11 | $52.30 | $55,027,379,777 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-08-12 | $51.42 | $54,330,005,020 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-13 | $51.42 | $54,330,005,020 | 34 / 39 |
| 2026-08-14 | $52.30 | $55,027,379,777 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-08-15 | $52.30 | $55,027,379,777 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-08-16 | $52.30 | $55,027,379,777 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-08-17 | $52.30 | $55,027,379,777 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-08-18 | $52.30 | $55,027,379,777 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-08-19 | $52.30 | $55,027,379,777 | 24 / 27 |
| 2026-08-20 | $52.45 | $55,437,009,428 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-21 | $52.45 | $55,437,009,428 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-22 | $52.45 | $55,447,936,894 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-23 | $52.45 | $55,447,936,894 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-24 | $52.45 | $55,447,936,894 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-25 | $52.48 | $55,484,521,701 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-26 | $52.48 | $55,484,521,701 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-27 | $52.48 | $55,484,521,701 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-28 | $52.48 | $55,484,521,701 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-29 | $52.48 | $55,484,521,701 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-30 | $52.48 | $55,484,521,701 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-31 | $52.48 | $55,484,521,701 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-01 | $52.51 | $55,509,242,704 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-02 | $52.58 | $55,573,272,531 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-03 | $52.58 | $55,573,272,531 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-04 | $52.61 | $55,608,241,819 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-05 | $52.61 | $55,608,241,819 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-06 | $52.61 | $55,608,241,819 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-07 | $52.61 | $55,608,241,819 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-08 | $52.61 | $55,608,241,819 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-09 | $52.73 | $55,699,106,729 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-10 | $52.78 | $55,757,983,338 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-11 | $52.81 | $55,786,913,535 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-12 | $52.84 | $55,825,293,753 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-13 | $52.84 | $55,825,293,753 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-14 | $52.84 | $55,825,293,753 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-15 | $52.83 | $55,869,279,130 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-16 | $52.95 | $55,886,860,441 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-17 | $52.95 | $55,886,860,441 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-18 | $52.95 | $55,886,860,441 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-19 | $52.95 | $55,886,860,441 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-20 | $53.12 | $56,000,572,311 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-21 | $52.92 | $55,782,795,866 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-22 | $52.94 | $55,820,327,601 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-23 | $53.09 | $55,979,359,873 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-24 | $53.09 | $55,979,359,873 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-25 | $53.20 | $56,088,654,535 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-26 | $53.20 | $56,096,339,316 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-27 | $53.17 | $56,046,737,104 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-28 | $53.35 | $56,234,847,756 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-29 | $53.41 | $56,292,432,650 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-09-30 | $53.41 | $56,292,432,650 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-01 | $53.54 | $56,429,129,480 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-02 | $53.64 | $56,541,034,944 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-03 | $53.59 | $56,459,847,966 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-04 | $53.63 | $56,488,084,117 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-05 | $53.73 | $56,583,694,466 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-06 | $53.63 | $56,496,668,233 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-07 | $53.68 | $56,424,502,105 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-08 | $53.66 | $56,398,710,914 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-10-09 | $53.56 | $56,296,349,893 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-10-10 | $53.56 | $56,296,349,893 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-10-11 | $53.57 | $56,283,862,924 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-10-12 | $53.65 | $56,370,047,887 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-10-13 | $53.81 | $56,388,847,458 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-10-14 | $54.01 | $56,515,551,880 | 23 / 26 |
| 2026-10-15 | $55.46 | $56,966,944,595 | 22 / 26 |
| 2026-10-16 | $56.47 | $57,693,912,236 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-17 | $56.47 | $57,693,912,236 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-18 | $56.50 | $57,383,563,402 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-19 | $56.52 | $57,412,793,126 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-20 | $56.52 | $57,412,793,126 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-21 | $56.54 | $57,423,965,744 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-22 | $56.55 | $57,440,766,444 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-23 | $56.59 | $57,363,202,010 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-24 | $56.59 | $57,363,202,010 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-25 | $56.59 | $57,363,202,010 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-26 | $56.59 | $57,363,202,010 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-27 | $56.59 | $57,363,202,010 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-28 | $56.58 | $57,363,202,010 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-29 | $56.58 | $57,363,202,010 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-30 | $56.57 | $57,348,757,321 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-31 | $56.57 | $57,348,757,321 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-01 | $56.57 | $57,348,757,321 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-02 | $56.57 | $57,348,757,321 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-03 | $56.57 | $57,348,757,321 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-04 | $56.84 | $57,420,136,505 | 21 / 26 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 38 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.