ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1714.88+4.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
ASML leads in advanced semiconductor equipment with strong partnerships. Sales are expected to grow from about $39.3B in 2026 to nearly $49B in 2027. The company benefits from lasting demand for EUV lithography and AI-related growth. Profit per share is forecast to rise from $31.83 in 2026 to $43.19 in 2027.
Growth could slow if chip demand weakens or if supply chain issues arise. Competition or delays in new technology could hurt sales and profits. The stock is correcting, reflecting some investor caution.
The stock price is about 12% below our valuation level and aligns with the median analyst price target near $1975. The market expects modest or slightly negative growth over the next 3 to 5 years, while estimates show rising earnings and revenue.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $31 in FY26 or fails to rise toward $43 in FY27
Breaks if: Loss of key partnerships or failure to advance AI initiatives
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $39B in FY26 or fails to grow toward $49B in FY27
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a moderate-risk, cyclical play in the technology sector. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history.
The market appears to have low fragility priced in, indicating that there are no immediate concerns affecting ASML's valuation. However, the recent change in valuation label to 'full' suggests that expectations may be high.
Fundamentals may remain stable in the near term, with a low probability of missing earnings. However, there is a historical context of deep misses, and earnings surprises are trending down, which could pose risks.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. Additionally, any potential rate cuts by the Fed could provide a favorable tailwind for ASML.
In the 1-3 year view, ASML's performance will depend on broader tech sector dynamics and macroeconomic factors. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The semiconductor industry's reliance on ASML remains high. This means fewer competitive alternatives for ASML technology. ASML's manufacturing capacity is fully booked through 2028. Management indicated there is room for further price increases. This could improve margins or revenue per unit.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.