ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1356.65-9.33%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASML
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 49 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may slow down ASML's business.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below the median, it signals a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifASML's revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifASML's revenue growth remains at or above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic problems. This could lower demand for ASML's products.
Worry ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims are much higher than they are now.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: If the Information Technology sector does well, ASML may gain from a stronger market. This can increase investor confidence.
Supportive ifSector performance goes above 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifSector performance falls below 0% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $486 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,181 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal strength in ASML's business. It would also show that the sector's slowdown is easing.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth stays below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the Information Technology sector picks up, it could benefit ASML. This would signal a stronger market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rises above 6% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 4% year over year.