ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1714.88+4.17%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASML
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 72 industry peers
Why it matters: Earnings trends from peers like NVDA and MSFT can signal market conditions that affect ASML.
Watch forEarnings reports from NVDA and MSFT show strong growth.
Also watch forEarnings reports from NVDA and MSFT show declining growth.
Why it matters: If the Information Technology sector does well, ASML may gain from a stronger market. This can increase investor confidence.
Supportive ifSector performance goes above 10% in the next quarter.
Worry ifSector performance falls below 0% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show the economy is weak. This could hurt ASML's sales.
Worry ifUnemployment claims went over 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Less concerning ifWeekly unemployment claims stay below 300,000.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into ASML's growth and market position. Investors will focus on revenue and margins.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth that is better than expected. It also shows strong margins.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth that is lower than expected. Margins are also declining.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$212 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,205 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal strength in ASML's business. It would also show that the sector's slowdown is easing.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth stays below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the Information Technology sector picks up, it could benefit ASML. This would signal a stronger market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rises above 6% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: This data can influence market sentiment and demand for ASML's products. Strong GDP could support growth.
Watch forGDP and corporate profits show stronger than expected growth in Q2 2026.
Also watch forGDP and corporate profits show weaker than expected growth in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show economic problems. This could lower demand for ASML's products.
Worry ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims are much higher than they are now.
Less concerning ifUnemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the sector. This could impact ASML's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median level.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below the median, it signals a slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifASML reports revenue growth below the median for the last three years.
Less concerning ifASML maintains revenue growth above the median.
Why it matters: A significant change in PPI could impact ASML's cost structure and pricing power.
Watch forPPI increases more than 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forPPI decreases or stays flat month over month.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision may change interest rates. This can impact market conditions for ASML.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.