Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.22+4.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASTE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASTE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 5, 2026, Astec Industries, Inc. (the "Company") reported results of operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved efficiency and financial health. This is key for funding growth.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow improves back above $40 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains below $12 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong future sales. There is high demand for Astec's products.
Supportive ifBacklog increases year over year by more than 36.4% as reported in Q1.
Worry ifBacklog growth slows to less than 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows Astec's trust in its growth. This is true even with recent issues.
Supportive ifAstec says its full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is still $170 million to $190 million.
Worry ifAstec cuts its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance. It is now below $170 million.
Why it matters: Backlog growth is a key indicator of future sales. A decline could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifBacklog growth slows or declines from the current $601.1 million.
Less concerning ifBacklog continues to grow or exceeds $650 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$166 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $412 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,667 loss on $10,000 · 36.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth in this area shows high demand and good operations.
Supportive ifMaterials Solutions net sales grow more than 30% year over year.
Worry ifMaterials Solutions net sales decline or grow less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Backlog growth is a key indicator of future sales and demand strength.
Supportive ifBacklog increases year over year by more than 50%.
Worry ifBacklog growth slows to less than 30% year over year.