Astec Industries, Inc. (ASTE)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$35.36-10.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASTE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 47 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASTE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 5, 2026, Astec Industries, Inc. (the "Company") reported results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Free cash flow fell from $32.6M in Q1 to $4.7M in Q2. A rise would show cash generation is improving.
Supportive ifQuarterly free cash flow exceeds $4.7M in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifQuarterly free cash flow is $4.7M or less, or turns negative.
Why it matters: Astec cut its 2026 profit range after asphalt plant shipments slowed. Results within the new range would show the cut was enough.
Watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands between $160M and $175M.
Also watch forFull-year adjusted EBITDA falls below $160M or guidance is cut again.
Why it matters: Materials Solutions drove much of Q2 growth. More orders than shipments would support the strong backlog trend.
Supportive ifMaterials Solutions book-to-bill stays above 100%. Backlog stays above $312.5M.
Worry ifBook-to-bill falls below 100% or backlog drops below $312.5M.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,562 loss on $10,000 · 45.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.