Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.67+8.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.97 → 1.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ASTH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $15 million in synergies from Prospect acquisition by Q1 2026 | It integrates acquisitions well and gains $15 million in synergies. | Intact | Synergies fall below $12 million by Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ASTH is a growth-oriented healthcare business with a multi-year thesis that is currently intact. Recent results have been strong and the signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, while management’s execution record is neutral and overall risk remains elevated.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s baseline and no signs of fragile pricing. The evidence does not quantify what the market assumes, so the size of that expectations gap is uncertain.
Near term, revenue growth and recent earnings results support management’s reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance. Free cash flow is progressing toward its goal, but the full-year target is not yet secured, and progress on expanding full-risk contracts remains mixed. A guidance cut, weakening jobs data, or recent earnings uncertainty could pressure the business outlook.
The multi-year thesis depends on ASTH sustaining revenue growth, reaching its cash flow goal, and continuing to expand full-risk contracts. Near term, guidance on the next call and employment data are key downside factors, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, strong recent performance and a valuation described as cheap versus peers support an intact thesis, but delivery on cash flow and guidance remains important amid elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow rises to nearly $133 million. |
| Under Pressure |
| Free cash flow falls below $105 million in FY 2026 |
Free cash flow: $92.926M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $132.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202692,926,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reach 16% revenue from fully capitated arrangements by Q1 2026 | The company shifts more revenue to full-risk contracts, reaching 80%. | Intact | Percentage falls below 16% in Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our performance gives us the confidence to raise our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 even as we reinvest a substantial portion of our first-half outperformance into attractive growth opportunities that we believe will further strengthen our earnings power over time.”” “The Texas agreement added approximately 3,000 new Medicare Advantage professional-risk lives.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve $4.1 billion revenue for FY 2026 | A primary condition in Astrana Health, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $4.1 billion. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $3.8 billion in FY 2026 | Revenue: $972.52M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.1 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026972,520,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our performance gives us the confidence to raise our adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 even as we reinvest a substantial portion of our first-half outperformance into attractive growth opportunities that we believe will further strengthen our earnings power over time.”” “The Texas agreement added approximately 3,000 new Medicare Advantage professional-risk lives.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.42 → $1.98 · observed estimates
$4.38B → $4.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.88 | $4,379,966,386 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.42 | $4,379,989,580 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.82 | $4,383,576,567 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.42 | $4,383,653,890 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.42 | $4,383,653,890 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.42 | $4,383,653,890 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.46 | $4,386,954,440 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.54 | $4,385,664,110 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.54 | $4,385,664,110 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.82 | $4,383,576,567 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.82 | $4,383,576,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.82 | $4,383,576,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.82 | $4,383,576,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.82 | $4,383,576,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.82 | $4,383,576,567 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.95 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.94 | $4,387,294,111 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.97 | $4,384,035,100 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.97 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.97 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.97 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.97 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.98 | $4,383,999,530 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.98 | $4,383,999,530 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.98 | $4,384,001,900 | 5 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.