Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.47+1.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Increase free cash flow to $132.5 million in FY 2026: FCF guidance mid $118.8M vs $132.5M target; low $105.0M at trip line.
Astrana Health grows revenue to about $4.1 billion in 2026. Free cash flow rises to nearly $133 million. The company shifts more revenue to full-risk contracts, reaching 80%. It integrates acquisitions well and gains $15 million in synergies.
Operating income is falling, down from $28.5 million to $10.4 million in 2025. Cash flow is volatile, with negative cash in some quarters. Key officers have left, which may hurt execution.
The stock trades about 17% below our $57 fair value, which is 33% above the Street median. Analysts expect 16% revenue growth, roughly in line with management guidance. Our view is more optimistic on cash flow and synergy delivery.
Breaks if: Synergies fall below $12 million by Q1 2026
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $105 million in FY 2026
Breaks if: Percentage falls below 16% in Q1 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a strong recent financial performance. The current thesis state is intact, supported by robust earnings quality and a favorable sector backdrop.
Valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with the market pricing in a justified premium. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive outcomes may already be reflected in the stock's current valuation.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and free cash flow targets for 2026, with strong year-over-year revenue growth. However, there is a mixed status on expanding full-risk contracts, which could impact future performance.
Key scenarios include the potential for guidance cuts in upcoming calls, which could negatively impact sentiment. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers and macroeconomic indicators like the jobs report will play a crucial role in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to grow membership and revenue under full-risk contracts to improve alignment and economics.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management reported approximately 80% of Care Partners capitation revenue is now from full-risk contracts and expanded Medicare Advantage membership with new agreements in Texas and Hawaii. This shows delivery and ongoing expansion of value-based care contracts.
“Astrana continued to expand its Medicare Advantage footprint, including new agreements in Hawaii and Texas.”
“Delivered on its commitment to convert key contracts to full-risk arrangements, with approximately 80% of Care Partners capitation revenue now in full-risk arrangements.”
“Astrana supports more than 20,000 providers and approximately 1.55 million patients in value-based care arrangements.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.8 billion in FY 2026
Sustain strong revenue growth to reach $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion in total revenue for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $654.8 million in 2025-Q2 to $972.5 million in 2026-Q2, a 49% year-over-year increase. Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance at $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion, up from $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion guidance for 2025, indicating delivery and continued growth momentum.
“reaffirming revenue... Guidance Range ($ in millions) Low High $ 3,800 $ 4,100”
“and reiterating guidance for the year ending December 31, 2026 based on the Companys existing business”
“Reiterating guidance for the year ending December 31, 2025... Guidance Range Low High $ 3,100 $ 3,300”
The outlook for ASTH remains cautiously optimistic, with strong fundamentals but elevated risks. Not investment advice.