Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.47+1.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ASTH — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-07-01
Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer — Glenn Sobotka: Mr. Sobotka is retiring, and Mr. Vong will succeed him.
Why it matters: An improvement means better cost control. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $28.5 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income was under $28.5 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would show better cash flow and stronger finances.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for Q2 reaches or exceeds $105 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for Q2 falls below $68 million, indicating cash flow issues.
Why it matters: This milestone shows Astrana values care based on results. It impacts total profits.
Supportive ifThe reported revenue from full-risk contracts is 80% or more.
Worry ifThe reported revenue from full-risk contracts is below 75%.
Why it matters: News about this job could change how the company works.
Watch forA new Chief Medical Officer who fits Astrana's goals will be announced.
Also watch forNo new Chief Medical Officer or a long vacancy in this role.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $536 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,641 loss on $10,000 · 46.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance shows Astrana is on track for its $3.8B to $4.1B target for 2026.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance within the range of $1,000M to $1,030M.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 revenue guidance to below $1,000M.
Why it matters: This means strong performance and good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was over $70 million for Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $65 million for Q2.
Why it matters: The Chief Medical Officer is leaving. This could change the company’s plans and operations.
Watch forManagement has a clear plan to handle the CMO leaving and keep things running.
Also watch forThere is no clear plan after the CMO's departure.
Why it matters: Filling this job fast could help keep things running smoothly after Dr. Kumar leaves.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new Chief Medical Officer within the next month.
Also watch forNo announcement of a new Chief Medical Officer by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Astrana is on track to meet its full-year revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue reported at $1 billion or higher.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was less than $1 billion.
Why it matters: More full-risk contracts show Astrana cares about value-based care. This helps them grow.
Supportive ifPercentage of Care Partners revenue from full-risk contracts increases beyond 80%.
Worry ifPercentage of Care Partners revenue from full-risk contracts drops below 80%.
Why it matters: Good ACO performance proves Astrana's healthcare model and growth plan work.
Supportive ifACOs expect shared savings over $120 million for 2025.
Worry ifACOs report shared savings below $120 million for 2025.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows strong cash flow and good operations.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at $105 million or more for the year.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $105 million for the year.