Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.67+8.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ASTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -15.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
ASTH — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2026-07-01
Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer — Glenn Sobotka: Mr. Sobotka is retiring, and Mr. Vong will succeed him.
Why it matters: A higher share would show progress in full-risk contracts. The latest reported share was 81%.
Supportive ifThe next report shows full-risk capitation revenue above 81%.
Worry ifThe next reported share is below 81%, or management reports a decline from the prior level.
Why it matters: Cash flow is a stated company priority. First-half free cash flow was $92.9 million, near the full-year low end.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow is below $105 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifFull-year free cash flow is at least $105 million and within the $105 million to $132.5 million range.
Why it matters: Management said it was on track to reach these savings by Q2 2026. The next update can show whether integration delivered them.
Supportive ifManagement confirms at least $12 million in Prospect deal savings were reached by Q2 2026.
Worry ifManagement reports less than $12 million in savings, or says the target was delayed or cut.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue was $972.5 million. Q3 guidance starts at $1.00 billion, so a miss would break the near-term growth path.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $1.00 billion, the low end of company guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $1.00 billion and within the $1.00 billion to $1.03 billion range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $536 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,556 loss on $10,000 · 45.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.