Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ATOUR LIFESTYLE HOLDINGS LTD (ATAT)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.11+0.14%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel LodgingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
18.80 → 19.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ATAT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
earnings per share growth to at least 15.28 in FY26 and 18.22 in FY27 | A primary condition in ATOUR LIFESTYLE HOLDINGS LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >=15.28 EPS in FY26 and >=18.22 EPS in FY27. | Intact | EPS falls below 15.28 in FY26 or below 18.22 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-sensitive Consumer Discretionary investment, not a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround based on the available evidence. The long-term thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial performance history to assess it, and overall confidence is low.
The valuation measure fell from 54.9 to 30.7, a decline of 24.2 points. ATAT is assessed as cheap versus peers, although the model also reports a 13% premium versus peers, leaving the exact valuation comparison unclear; no fragility warning is flagged.
The evidence is too thin to establish a near-term fundamental trajectory. The estimated miss probability is 27%, with a quiet risk rating, but the snapshot notes that industry peers have missed recently and ATAT had a deep miss in its recent history.
In the near term, continued earnings strength and higher guidance from hotel bellwethers MAR, HLT, and IHG could support sector momentum; misses or lower guidance could weaken that backdrop. Over the multi-year view, a material slowdown in GDP growth from 2.1% to below 2% would be a risk because the sector is growth-sensitive.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis remains uncertain: ATAT looks cheap versus peers on one measure, but limited performance history makes the business outlook hard to judge. The sector signals and economic growth are key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in ATOUR LIFESTYLE HOLDINGS LTD's published investment case. The stated target is sector regime status improves from 'headwind' to 'stable' within 12 months. |
| Intact |
| sector regime remains 'headwind' or worsens over next 4 quarters |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
price to earnings ratio recovers toward peer median of ~34 | A supporting condition in ATOUR LIFESTYLE HOLDINGS LTD's published investment case. The stated target is PE rises above 10 within next 12 months. | Broken | PE remains below 10 over next 4 quarters | Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$18.09 → $19.05 · observed estimates
$14.90B → $15.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $18.09 | $14,899,028,845 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-25 | $18.09 | $14,899,028,845 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $18.06 | $14,888,521,826 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $18.06 | $14,888,521,826 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $18.06 | $14,888,521,826 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $18.06 | $14,888,521,826 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.12 | $14,963,060,989 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $18.12 | $14,963,060,989 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $18.12 | $14,963,060,989 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $18.25 | $14,965,817,630 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-09 | $18.25 | $14,965,817,630 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.25 | $14,965,817,630 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-11 | $18.25 | $14,965,817,630 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-12 | $18.24 | $14,977,825,680 | 12 / 18 |
| 2026-08-13 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-17 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-18 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-19 | $18.19 | $15,002,429,878 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-20 | $18.33 | $15,123,804,497 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $18.34 | $15,153,326,928 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $18.27 | $15,326,631,978 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $18.27 | $15,326,631,978 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $18.29 | $15,358,011,756 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $18.29 | $15,361,788,521 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $18.30 | $15,369,959,326 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $18.30 | $15,369,959,326 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $18.30 | $15,369,959,326 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $18.69 | $15,410,804,603 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $18.69 | $15,410,804,603 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $18.69 | $15,410,804,603 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $18.66 | $15,387,998,354 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $18.70 | $15,423,244,375 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $18.69 | $15,411,841,251 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $18.97 | $15,366,599,879 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $18.97 | $15,366,599,879 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $18.97 | $15,366,599,879 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $18.99 | $15,386,237,046 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $19.00 | $15,389,337,651 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $19.00 | $15,389,337,651 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $19.00 | $15,391,404,721 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $19.00 | $15,394,505,326 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $19.02 | $15,407,941,283 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $19.02 | $15,407,941,283 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $19.02 | $15,407,941,283 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $19.00 | $15,410,880,613 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $19.00 | $15,408,811,483 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $18.99 | $15,402,604,093 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $18.99 | $15,402,604,093 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $18.99 | $15,402,604,093 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $19.00 | $15,413,984,308 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $18.74 | $15,203,931,927 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $18.78 | $15,233,073,768 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $18.82 | $15,295,243,202 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $18.78 | $15,268,041,141 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $18.79 | $15,276,873,109 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $18.80 | $15,281,020,408 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $18.80 | $15,281,020,408 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $18.81 | $15,293,507,880 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $18.79 | $15,269,915,345 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $18.80 | $15,283,027,348 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $18.82 | $15,301,094,236 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $18.79 | $15,275,391,686 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $18.80 | $15,277,806,983 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $18.80 | $15,277,806,983 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $18.80 | $15,277,746,221 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $18.80 | $15,277,746,221 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $18.82 | $15,296,211,234 | 7 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $18.83 | $15,302,598,300 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $18.86 | $15,334,379,700 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $18.86 | $15,334,379,700 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $18.86 | $15,333,350,892 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $18.86 | $15,331,125,000 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $18.89 | $15,356,648,855 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $18.90 | $15,367,184,310 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $18.90 | $15,367,107,907 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $18.90 | $15,368,024,744 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $18.90 | $15,368,024,744 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $18.91 | $15,372,139,893 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $18.91 | $15,372,139,893 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $18.91 | $15,372,139,893 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $18.92 | $15,385,514,128 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $18.94 | $15,398,888,363 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $18.97 | $15,428,554,202 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $18.96 | $15,423,402,077 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $18.96 | $15,423,402,077 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $18.98 | $15,433,706,328 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $18.98 | $15,433,706,328 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $19.02 | $15,475,699,896 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $19.02 | $15,475,699,896 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $19.00 | $15,468,408,180 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $19.02 | $15,486,981,413 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $19.02 | $15,486,981,413 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $19.02 | $15,486,981,413 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $19.04 | $15,503,490,954 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $19.05 | $15,509,682,032 | 9 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.