Reading ATCH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATCH free→Reading ATCH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ATCH free→AMEXFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is fragile. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, ATCH is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.21 ATCH trades at 2× p/s, in line with its 2× p/s peer median. Our $0.20 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.01. 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$248.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,087.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,877.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 14.5 points (from 49.8 to 35.3).
Composite insight fell by 13.0 points (from 7.1 to -5.9).
Confidence changed from 'low' to 'medium'.
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
Valuation fell. The sector backdrop fell. Confidence changed to medium. The valuation label changed to full.
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ATCH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As reported on the Form 8-K filed by AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) on May 29, 2026, on May 27, 2026, the stockholders of the Company approved a first amendment (the “Plan Amendment”) to the Company’s 2024 Equity Incentive Plan (the “Plan”). The Plan Amendment had previously been approved by the Company’s board of directors, subject to s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ATCH ATLASCLEAR HOLDINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | fair | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Finalize the acquisition of all outstanding shares of Commercial Bancorp.
Implement the first amendment to the 2024 Equity Incentive Plan as approved by stockholders.
Manage and address new financial obligations and off-balance sheet arrangements.
as of 2026-06-16
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing certain financial results for the fiscal quarter and nine months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. This information is intended to be furnished under
Other Events. Supplement to Definitive Proxy Statement On April 30, 2026, AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) filed a definitive proxy statement (the “Proxy Statement”) for the solicitation of proxies in connection with an annual meeting of the Company’s stockholders to be held on May 27, 2026 (the “Annual Meeting”). The Company has determined to amend and supplement certain information contained in the Proxy Statement as described in this Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Proxy Suppleme…
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Entry into a Definitive Material Agreement. Commercial Bancorp Share Purchase Agreement On February 5, 2026, AtlasClear Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a share purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Commercial Bancorp, a Wyoming corporation (“Commercial Bancorp”), and each of the shareholders of Commercial Bancorp (collectively, the “Sellers”). The Purchase Agreement provides for the Company to acquire (the “Acquisition”) from the Sellers all of the outstanding shares…