Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Anterix, Inc. (ATEX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.52-11.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ATEX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves to positive $15.5 million in Q4 2026 | Cash from operations turned positive $15.5M, showing strong financial progress. | Improving | cash from operations falls below $5 million in Q4 2026 | Cash from operations: $2.045M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $15.5 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 20262,045,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ATEX is a higher-risk, execution-dependent business rather than a proven durable compounder. Its multi-year view is currently intact, though confidence has fallen from high to medium and earnings quality remains fragile.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with the evidence pointing to a premium tied to optionality, or the chance that future opportunities create added value. The expectations gap is elevated, but model confidence is low, so how much of that potential is already reflected is uncertain.
Near term, management has made progress: operating losses narrowed and cash from operations turned positive from the earlier negative level, while contracted proceeds collected are moving toward the stated goal. Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance is still early to assess, and a history of a deep miss keeps execution risk relevant despite recent earnings beats and a low current miss estimate.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued collection of contracted proceeds, progress toward revenue guidance, and sustained improvement in operating income and cash flow. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ATEX has an intact but fragile long-term thesis: improving financial trends support it, while expensive valuation, elevated risk, and execution uncertainty limit confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve over $80 million in contracted proceeds in Q4 2026 |
| Anterix aims to secure over $80M in contracted proceeds in Q4 2026. |
| Improving |
| contracted proceeds fall below $70 million in Q4 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to positive $19.8 million in Q4 2026 | Operating income improved from negative $9.1M to positive $19.8M in Q4 2026. | Improving | operating income falls below $10 million in Q4 2026 | Operating income: $-246,000 FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $19.8 million. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026-246,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $25.3 million in fiscal year 2027 | A primary condition in Anterix, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $25.3 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $20 million in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $1.958M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.3 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 20261,958,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.26 → $-0.63 · observed estimates
$0.03B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.26 | $17,916,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.26 | $17,916,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.26 | $27,832,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.36 | $23,510,667 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.53 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.63 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.63 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.63 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.63 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.63 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.63 | $19,591,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.