Atmos Energy (ATO)
NYSEUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated GasSnapshot 2026-07-07
$177.62+2.18%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $177.62. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $178 ATO trades at 2.0× p/b, below its 2.3× p/b peer median, but our blended $163 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $183–$195. Note: our $163 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($183–$195). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $189 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$183.00 – $195.00 (median $186.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-07-02
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $186.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $70.11 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $127.56 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $206.49 | 24.4 | 8.45 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $206.78 | 2.3 | 88.84 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $198.91 | 24.4 | 8.14 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $89.36 | 3.1 | 29.09 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $228.12 | 28.0 | 8.14 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $93.04 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $168.94 | 20.8 | 8.14 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $204.36 | 24.4 | 8.36 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $263.15 | 24.4 | 10.77 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $302.08 | 2.3 | 129.79 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $283.88 | 24.4 | 11.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $137.12 | 3.1 | 44.63 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $325.56 | 28.0 | 11.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $241.09 | 20.8 | 11.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $309.33 | 24.4 | 12.66 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $388.92 | 2.3 | 167.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $375.43 | 24.4 | 15.36 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $181.34 | 3.1 | 59.03 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $430.55 | 28.0 | 15.36 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $318.85 | 20.8 | 15.36 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.