Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$9.78 → $9.76 · observed estimates
Atmos Energy (ATO)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$175.00-0.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.77 → 9.76 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ATO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure near $4.2 billion in fiscal 2026 | Atmos Energy plans to spend about $4.2 billion on capital in 2026. | Intact | Capital expenditure falls below $3.7 billion in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $1.039B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: approximately $4.2 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20261,039,346,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$9.78 → $9.76 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ATO is a regulated utility with a multi-year thesis built around capital investment and reliable earnings and dividend growth. The thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality remains fragile.
ATO is described as cheap versus peers, with expectations close to the evidence-based view and no strong indication of excessive fragility being priced in. Valuation confidence is medium, so that comparison is not certain.
Near term, management is on track with its fiscal 2026 capital spending, EPS guidance, and dividend priorities, while recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality remains fragile, and a recent history of misses makes the next guidance update important despite a stated low miss risk.
A cut to guidance on the next call would be a meaningful negative; reaffirming the current plan would support the thesis. Over the multi-year view, the setup also depends on execution of the safety and reliability investment plan, while rate cuts and continued strength at sector peers could help the broader utility backdrop.
The 1-3 year thesis remains intact, with solid recent performance and management progress balanced by fragile earnings quality and sensitivity to guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company raised its dividend to $4.00 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend falls below $3.48 per share in FY26 |
Dividend per share: $1.00 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $4.00 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20261 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS guidance maintained at $8.40 to $8.50 for fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Atmos Energy's published investment case. The stated target is $8.40 - $8.50. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $7.35 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.43 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $8.40 - $8.50. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20261.43 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.06B → $6.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $9.78 | $6,064,533,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.77 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.76 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.76 | $6,070,033,097 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.76 | $6,071,458,144 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.