Atmos Energy (ATO)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$167.56-0.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ATO — President transition
Dated 2026-08-10
Senior Vice President — John S. McDill: The filing primarily details the planned retirement of a Senior Vice President with a named internal successor already appointed, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden executive loss.
Why it matters: Meeting the EPS guidance of $8.40 - $8.50 would show strong performance. It confirms management's confidence in growth.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per diluted share reported within the range of $8.40 - $8.50.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per diluted share falls below $8.40.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS shows the company is on track with its guidance. It also reflects strong financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per diluted share of $7.33 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per diluted share falls below $7.33.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is strong and keeps its promise to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnual dividend stays at $4.00 or goes up.
Worry ifAnnual dividend drops below $4.00.
Why it matters: The recent debt issuance could affect financial stability and future capital costs. Monitoring this helps assess risk.
Watch forDebt issuance helps improve cash flow and capital structure.
Also watch forDebt issuance leads to higher leverage ratios or cash flow worries.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $168 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,375 loss on $10,000 · 13.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows strong earnings. It shows management's confidence in performance.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms EPS guidance in the range of $8.40 - $8.50 for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance to below $8.40 for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows commitment to safety and reliability. It supports long-term growth.
Supportive ifCapital spending is about $4.2 billion for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending drops below $4.2 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows financial health. It shows commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company maintains a quarterly dividend of $1.00 per common share.
Worry ifThe company cuts the quarterly dividend below $1.00 per common share.