Atmos Energy (ATO)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$175.00-0.82%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ATO — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-09
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 9, 2026, Atmos Energy Corporation (“Atmos Energy”) completed a public offering of $700 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.000% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The offering has been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), pursuant to a registration statement on Form S-3 (Registration No. 333-283563) of Atmos Energy and the Prospectus Supplement dated October 6, 2026, which was filed wit…
Why it matters: Atmos reaffirmed this range in August after raising it in May. Meeting it would support the earnings growth story.
Supportive ifThe next report shows fiscal 2026 diluted EPS from $8.40 to $8.50.
Worry ifAtmos cuts its fiscal 2026 EPS range below $8.40 or reports EPS below $8.40.
Why it matters: Atmos issued these notes at 6.000% in October. The next report can show how the debt affects funding and its capital plan.
Worry ifA filing or report shows higher debt costs, less cash available, or a cut to the $4.2 billion capital plan.
Less concerning ifAtmos keeps its $4.2 billion capital plan and reports about $4.6 billion or more in cash available.
Why it matters: Atmos set its indicated annual dividend at $4.00, up 14.9% from fiscal 2025. The next report can confirm delivery.
Supportive ifAtmos pays four quarterly dividends of $1.00 each. That totals $4.00 for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAtmos cuts a quarterly dividend below $1.00 or reports less than $4.00 total for fiscal 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$67 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $168 loss on $10,000 · 1.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,875 loss on $10,000 · 18.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.