Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Astronics Corp. (ATRO)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$52.88-8.00%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.15 → 3.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ATRO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex planned at $40M-$50M in 2026 | A supporting condition in Astronics Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $40M-$50M. | Intact | Capex falls below $40 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $5.709M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $40M-$50M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 20265,709,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ATRO is a growth-focused industrial business, with recent results and management execution supporting a multi-year view. The thesis is intact, though risk is elevated and earnings quality is neutral.
The valuation evidence describes ATRO as cheap versus peers, with only a small expectations gap and a justified priced-in assessment. Valuation has fallen by 12.6 points recently, while the evidence does not indicate that market expectations are especially fragile.
Near-term results have been strong: second-quarter 2026 sales grew 27% year over year, and management raised its 2026 revenue guidance. Test Systems profitability also improved, moving from an operating loss to a small operating profit, while planned capital spending remains on track overall but is marked mixed. Near-term risk is quiet, but past deep misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises warrant attention.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on ATRO delivering its raised revenue guidance and continuing to improve Test Systems profitability. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. The broader industrial backdrop also matters: continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the setup, while weaker results or guidance could remove that tailwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ATRO’s growth execution supports an intact long-term thesis, but elevated risk and a headwind from the industrial sector make delivery and sector conditions important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Astronics Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $245M-$250M. |
| Intact |
| Q2 sales fall below $245 million |
Revenue: $259.957M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $245M-$250M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 12, 2026259,957,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 2026 revenue near $985 million | A primary condition in Astronics Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$985 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $970 million in FY26 | Revenue: $259.957M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$985 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026259,957,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.64 → $3.12 · observed estimates
$1.06B → $1.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.64 | $1,059,179,250 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.85 | $1,076,303,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.85 | $1,076,303,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.98 | $1,073,504,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.15 | $1,136,025,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.12 | $1,134,525,750 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.12 | $1,134,880,600 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.