Astronics Corp. (ATRO)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$57.48-5.63%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
Why it matters: Astronics raised its 2026 revenue plan after record sales and backlog. Q3 results test whether that growth continues.
Supportive ifOn the November 10 earnings call, Astronics keeps or raises its $1.02B-$1.04B 2026 revenue plan.
Worry ifAstronics cuts its 2026 revenue plan below $1.02B or reports Q3 sales below its prior pace.
Why it matters: Astronics said it expects positive free cash flow for the rest of 2026. Higher inventory and plant spending use cash.
Worry ifAstronics reports negative free cash flow in a quarter after saying it expects positive free cash flow.
Less concerning ifAstronics reports positive free cash flow for the rest of 2026, as planned.
Why it matters: The Army program is set to drive Test Systems growth. The segment still faces low volume and weak margins.
Supportive ifAstronics reports another Army Radio Test Set order. Test Systems operating profit tops $0.6M.
Worry ifThe Army order slips, or Test Systems reports an operating loss instead of profit.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $607 loss on $10,000 · 6.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,849 loss on $10,000 · 38.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.