Astronics Corp. (ATRO)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$76.26+2.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ATRO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ATRO — credit agreement
Dated 2025-10-22
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Astronics Corporation (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Revolving Credit Agreement”), dated as of October 22, 2025, with HSBC Bank USA, National Association, as administrative agent for the lenders (“HSBC”), the guarantors party thereto, and the lenders signatory thereto. The cash flow-based revolving credit facility under the Revolving Credit Agreement replaces the Company’s asset-based credit facility. As such, the Seventh Amen…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is stabilizing or declining. This is key for future outlook.
Watch forQ2 revenue growth is over 5% compared to last year. This shows stabilization.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, signaling further decline.
Why it matters: This program is expected to greatly increase revenue and profit in Test Systems.
Watch forProduction orders for the U.S. Army Radio Test Set program increase significantly in Q3.
Also watch forNo new production orders for the U.S. Army Radio Test Set program in Q3.
Why it matters: Sales growth above 25% would confirm strong demand and operational execution. It would support the raised revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 sales growth exceeds 25% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth falls below 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The Class B stock distribution helps shareholders. Finishing it may make investors happy.
Supportive ifClass B stock distribution occurs on or about June 29, 2026.
Worry ifDistribution is late or canceled.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$225 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $563 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,526 loss on $10,000 · 25.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting the spending target shows strong investment in growth. It shows management's commitment.
Watch forSpending reaches or goes over $40 million by year-end.
Also watch forSpending drops below $30 million by year-end.
Why it matters: Earnings results will clarify if the previous miss was a one-time issue or a trend.
Watch forQ2 2026 earnings show a profit or meet expectations.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings miss expectations again.
Why it matters: This report shares details about money made and plans for the future.
Watch forEarnings report shows better financial results than before.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows ongoing money issues or does not meet expectations.
Why it matters: Completing the changes could improve operations. It may also help meet profit goals.
Supportive ifThe Seattle consolidation is expected to finish by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThere are delays in the Seattle changes. This shows there are operational problems.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is important for funding growth and spending.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $30 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $10 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Confirming this guidance would show strong demand and support the growth outlook for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 sales reported between $245 million and $250 million as guided.
Worry ifQ2 sales were below $245 million. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Astronics. This would signal a stronger market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year, indicating a rebound.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is under 5% compared to last year. This shows ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: The earnings miss may hurt investor confidence and future sales.
Worry ifQ2 results show a significant decline in sales or earnings due to the earnings miss.
Less concerning ifQ2 results are better than expected, showing strength despite the earnings miss.
Why it matters: Raising guidance shows strong business growth and confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in 2026 revenue guidance to $970M-$1B.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the 2026 revenue guidance.
Why it matters: A good outcome in the patent appeal could lower legal costs and boost profits.
Supportive ifA favorable ruling in the UK patent appeal is announced.
Worry ifThe appeal ends badly, raising financial risks.
Why it matters: Exceeding guidance would show strong demand and growth momentum in the aerospace sector.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance raised to above $1.04 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance remains at or below $1.02 billion.
Why it matters: A backlog over $800 million shows strong future sales and demand.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $800 million.
Worry ifBacklog is below $780 million.
Why it matters: This segment's growth is important for the company's overall growth and profits.
Supportive ifThe Test Systems segment made a profit. It is now over $1 million.
Worry ifTest Systems segment is still losing money or shows losses.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good use of money, helping future growth.
Watch forCapital spending is $40 million or more for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending is below $30 million for 2026.