Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp. (AUB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.21-2.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.04 → 4.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AUB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend per share at least $0.37 | It returns capital by increasing dividends, recently up 8.8% to $0.37 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.34 | Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.37 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AUB is a financial-sector business with a currently intact long-term thesis, rather than a clear turnaround story. Recent financial performance is strong, but management execution is volatile and earnings quality is neutral, so the thesis is not without uncertainty.
The valuation evidence describes AUB as cheap versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and low priced-in fragility. The market appears to reflect a broadly justified setup, not a full mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near term, recent results were in line, and the signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable. Revenue rose from the first to the second quarter of 2026, loans reached $29.3 billion at September 30, and reported credit measures improved from a year earlier. Guidance cuts remain a risk, while the supplied evidence does not include third-quarter revenue.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on maintaining profitable growth, sound credit quality, and steady execution of the share repurchase program. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level could weigh on the setup, while continued strength among financial-sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AUB’s long-term thesis looks intact, with strong recent performance and improving credit measures balanced by volatile management execution and sensitivity to rates. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Atlantic Union Bankshares grows operating income to about $155 million next quarter. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $116 million in any quarter |
Operating income: $204.493M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $154.6 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026204,493,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue stays near $1.34 billion in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.34 billion. | Under Pressure | Annual revenue falls below $1.2 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.03 → $4.07 · observed estimates
$1.62B → $1.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,943 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.03 | $1,616,094,940 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.03 | $1,616,124,506 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.04 | $1,616,522,803 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.04 | $1,617,272,928 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.04 | $1,617,272,928 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.04 | $1,617,243,365 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.04 | $1,617,243,365 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.04 | $1,617,243,365 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.04 | $1,617,243,365 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.04 | $1,617,408,126 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.04 | $1,617,408,126 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.04 | $1,617,408,126 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.04 | $1,617,408,126 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.04 | $1,617,408,126 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.04 | $1,617,408,126 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.04 | $1,617,408,126 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.03 | $1,616,501,376 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.03 | $1,616,501,376 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.03 | $1,616,501,376 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.03 | $1,616,563,876 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.07 | $1,617,113,961 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.07 | $1,617,113,961 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.07 | $1,617,113,961 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.07 | $1,617,113,961 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.06 | $1,616,376,461 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.07 | $1,617,545,123 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.07 | $1,617,545,123 | 7 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.