Atlantic Union Bankshares, Corp. (AUB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.91+0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AUB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
AUB — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-27
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 27, 2026, Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc. and Piper Sandler & Co., as representatives to the underwriters listed in Schedule I thereto, with respect to the offer and sale of $250 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.25% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”) at a public offering price…
Why it matters: The Producer Price Index affects inflation and interest rates. This can change loan demand.
Watch forProducer Price Index shows an increase above 0.3% month over month.
Also watch forProducer Price Index shows a decrease below 0.1% month over month.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into loan growth and asset quality.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income decline of 5% or more year over year.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets might show credit quality problems. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNonperforming assets as a percentage of loans exceeds 0.4% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets remain at or below 0.39% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the bank is enhancing operating income as planned. This impacts investor confidence.
Supportive ifEarnings per share is higher than what analysts expected. This shows strong operating income.
Worry ifEarnings per share is lower than analyst expectations. This shows challenges in making more money.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $243 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,833 loss on $10,000 · 18.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The new hire will shape credit policies and risk management. This affects overall bank stability.
Watch forA new leader will be named before Doug Woolley retires on April 1, 2027.
Also watch forNo new leader was named by the time Woolley retires.
Why it matters: Good integration is key for getting benefits and growth from the acquisition.
Supportive ifManagement says integration of Sandy Spring will be done by end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or issues in integration by end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets can show weaker credit quality. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNonperforming assets are under 0.45% of total loans. This shows stable asset quality.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets are over 0.45%. This may mean there are credit problems.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims can show economic stress. This can hurt borrowers' ability to repay loans.
Worry ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims rise above 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Less concerning ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims stay below 250,000 for two weeks in a row.
Why it matters: High charge-offs may show worse asset quality and credit risk. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs remain at or below 0.03% of total average loans.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs rise above 0.03% of total average loans.
Why it matters: A drop in the net interest margin might mean lower profits.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.8% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 3.89% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finding a new chief credit officer is key to maintaining credit quality. This could impact the bank's risk management and growth.
Supportive ifA press release will name Doug Woolley's successor before he retires on April 1, 2027.
Worry ifNo successor is named by the time of Woolley's retirement.
Why it matters: Economic data, such as unemployment rates and CPI, can affect loan demand. This also impacts bank performance.
Watch forUnemployment rate drops below 4% and loan demand increases.
Also watch forThe unemployment rate goes above 5% and loan demand falls.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can affect loan growth and net interest income.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates by 25 basis points or more.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates the same.
Why it matters: A steady or rising net interest margin shows good management of income and costs.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is above 3.85%. This shows strong loan yields and good cost control.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.70%. This shows possible pressure on profits.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for revenue. A drop below 6% may signal weakening demand.
Worry ifQuarterly average loan growth is below 6% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifQuarterly average loan growth is above 6% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in net interest income shows good loan management. It also shows profitability.
Supportive ifNet interest income grows by more than $12 million from Q2 to Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest income growth is less than $12 million or declines.
Why it matters: This program shows management's commitment to returning value to shareholders. It can boost earnings per share if executed well.
Supportive ifManagement says they bought back a large part of the $250M by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company did not follow the share repurchase plan. They bought back very few shares.