Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Avista Corporation (AVA)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.91+1.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.80 → 2.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $615 million capital expenditures in 2026 | Capital spending is $615 million. | Intact | Capital spend falls below $615 million in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $176M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $615 million in 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026176,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “This non-GAAP utility earnings guidance is based on the following assumptions: • Normal weather for the remainder of the year • A negative impact from the ERM of ($0.09) cents per diluted share within the 90% customer, 10% company sharing band • An effective tax rate of 12 percent • Capital expenditures of $615 million for the year Over the long term, we expect non-GAAP utility earnings to grow 4 to 6 percent from the midpoint of our 2025 earnings guidance.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AVA is a regulated Utilities business with a measured, earnings-and-investment-led long-term thesis, rather than a high-growth story. The thesis is intact, and recent company momentum improved, but confidence is medium and execution is not uniformly strong.
The valuation evidence points to AVA being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a highly fragile setup.
Near term, reaffirmed 2026 utility earnings guidance and recent earnings growth support the current operating picture, although reported net income was lower in 2026-Q2 than in 2026-Q1. Capital spending is on a growing path, but execution is mixed; wildfire mitigation remains a priority, with planned investment and operating costs. The near-term miss risk is described as low, but the snapshot notes recent misses by AVA and its peers.
Over the next few quarters, delivering the 2026 earnings guidance is central; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. The multi-year view also depends on managing utility investment and wildfire risk while carrying out planned capital spending. Fed rate cuts and continued earnings strength among sector peers are possible near-term tailwinds, but neither is assured.
For the next one to three years, AVA’s thesis rests on steady utility earnings and disciplined execution, with mixed capital-spending and wildfire-risk signals. The thesis remains intact, but confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Meet 2026 non-GAAP utility EPS guidance of $2.52 to $2.72 | The company has steady earnings and plans utility investments. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $2.52 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Utility Earnings Guidance and Outlook Avista Corp. is confirming its 2026 non-GAAP utility earnings guidance with a range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share.” “This non-GAAP utility earnings guidance is based on the following assumptions: • Normal weather for the remainder of the year • A negative impact from the ERM of ($0.09) cents per diluted share within the 90% customer, 10% company sharing band • An effective tax rate of 12 percent • Capital expenditures of $615 million for the year Over the long term, we expect non-GAAP utility earnings to grow 4 to 6 percent from the midpoint of our 2025 earnings guidance.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Resume M&A activity to support growth | A supporting condition in Avista Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is M&A negotiations resume within next 4 quarters. | Improving | M&A remains paused beyond 1 year | M&A resumed (May 2026) vs paused >1yr trip May 2026 material definitive agreement filed; June 2026 data center talks paused but core M&A active. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.79 → $2.80 · observed estimates
$2.08B → $2.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.79 | $2,075,012,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.79 | $2,075,012,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.79 | $2,075,012,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.79 | $2,053,164,985 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.79 | $2,073,712,800 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.79 | $2,073,546,130 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.79 | $2,056,475,354 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.79 | $2,076,479,460 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.79 | $2,076,479,460 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.79 | $2,076,479,460 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.79 | $2,076,479,460 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.79 | $2,076,479,460 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.79 | $2,076,479,460 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.79 | $2,056,475,354 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.79 | $2,056,475,354 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.79 | $2,056,475,354 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.79 | $2,056,475,354 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.79 | $2,056,475,354 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.79 | $2,056,475,354 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.79 | $2,056,475,354 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.80 | $2,030,522,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.80 | $2,034,422,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.80 | $2,054,636,167 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.