Avista Corporation (AVA)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.55-0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 4.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVA — CFO transition
Dated 2026-07-02
Senior Vice President of Growth, Energy Policy and External Relations — Jason R. Thackston: Jason R. Thackston is retiring from Avista Corporation to join Whitworth University as its Vice President of Finance and Administration and Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Avista cares about utility investments. It helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifTotal capital spending was at least $615 million for 2026.
Worry ifTotal capital spending was under $615 million for 2026.
Why it matters: The rate case outcome will affect revenue and profits. It shows support for Avista's goals.
Watch forThe Washington General Rate Case will increase base electric revenue by more than $68.9 million.
Also watch forThe Washington General Rate Case will increase base electric revenue by less than $68.9 million.
Why it matters: Issuing bonds helps with capital and financial flexibility. These are important for growth.
Supportive ifAvista issues more bonds. The total is $70 million or more.
Worry ifAvista fails to issue the planned bonds or delays the issuance significantly.
Why it matters: Staying within the range of $2.52 to $2.72 per diluted share shows strong performance. It confirms management's confidence in their earnings outlook.
Supportive ifQ3 utility earnings were over $2.52 per diluted share.
Worry ifQ3 utility earnings were under $2.52 per diluted share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $185 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,270 loss on $10,000 · 12.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Managing wildfire risks is key for safety and following rules. It affects trust and reliability.
Supportive ifManagement says they used wildfire strategies. They plan to spend $45 million.
Worry ifReports show more wildfire incidents. There are also problems with mitigation efforts.
Why it matters: Management has often confirmed its earnings guidance. Meeting this guidance shows strong results.
Supportive if2026 non-GAAP utility earnings per diluted share lands within the range of $2.52 to $2.72.
Worry ifEarnings per diluted share falls below $2.52.
Why it matters: The outcome of this rate case impacts revenue and support for Avista.
Watch forThe rate case ends with a good decision for Avista, boosting electric revenue.
Also watch forThe rate case ends with a decision that hurts revenue or raises costs.
Why it matters: Updates on this rate case can impact revenue and earnings. It reflects regulatory support for Avista's strategies.
Watch forPositive outcome or approval of proposed changes in the rate case.
Also watch forThere was a negative outcome for the proposed changes in the rate case.
Why it matters: This project helps Avista plan for future energy needs. Progress may improve operations.
Supportive ifManagement shares a big update on the North Plains Connector project permits.
Worry ifDelays or setbacks in the permitting process are reported.
Why it matters: This project is important for future energy supply and delivery. Progress shows growth.
Supportive ifAgreements for the North Plains Connector project will be signed in the next 6-9 months.
Worry ifThere is no progress on agreements or delays in permits for the North Plains Connector project.
Why it matters: The ERM's impact on earnings can show how well the company manages costs and pricing.
Worry ifThe ERM impacts Q3 earnings by less than the expected $0.10 per diluted share.
Less concerning ifThe ERM impacts Q3 earnings by more than the expected $0.10 per diluted share.