Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.67-3.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.91 → 0.91 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVAH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $340 million in 2026 | Profit rises with adjusted EBITDA near $340 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $328 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AVAH is a growth-focused healthcare business with added scale from its recently completed Family First Homecare acquisition. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance, though earnings quality is fragile and risk remains elevated.
The evidence describes AVAH as cheap versus peers, with expectations below the model’s assessment, and labels the current setup justified rather than broadly fragile. Confidence in that valuation read is medium, so it does not remove the need for reliable execution.
In the near term, recent results and successive increases to 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance show positive operating momentum. Management has completed the Family First acquisition as planned, but past deep misses and recent peer misses leave some risk around guidance delivery.
The multi-year view depends on maintaining the growth and operating improvements behind higher guidance. A guidance cut after recent increases would damage credibility, while continued earnings strength from sector peers could support the healthcare backdrop; weakening job growth could add pressure to cyclical healthcare businesses.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AVAH’s thesis rests on turning recent growth and acquisition contributions into dependable results. The setup is supported by strong recent performance, but fragile earnings quality and elevated risk make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The Family First acquisition expands services and supports growth. |
| Intact |
| Acquisition fails to contribute to revenue growth or causes operational issues |
Qualitative: Integration complete, 7-10% growth guidance raised Acquisition closed June 2026; 2026 guidance raised to 7-10% growth; Q2 earnings beat estimates. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in a supplied disclosure. Management reported: “Aveanna acquired Family First Homecare for a cash purchase price of $175.5 million and funded the acquisition with cash on hand.” “The increase is exclusively related to Family First Homecare's revenue guidance of $70.0 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Gross margin near 31.7% in 2026 | A supporting condition in Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=31.7%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 30% in FY26 | Gross margin: 32.59% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=31.7%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202632.592176 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches about $2.64 billion in 2026 | Aveanna Healthcare grows revenue about 7% to $2.64 billion in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.56 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $670.483M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.64B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026670,483,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.78 → $0.91 · observed estimates
$2.80B → $2.90B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.78 | $2,801,627,420 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.86 | $2,877,102,224 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.88 | $2,888,462,224 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.88 | $2,888,462,224 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.88 | $2,888,462,224 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.88 | $2,891,862,224 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.88 | $2,891,862,224 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.88 | $2,891,862,224 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.88 | $2,891,862,224 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.90 | $2,891,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.91 | $2,898,862,224 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.91 | $2,898,848,284 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.91 | $2,898,852,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.91 | $2,900,052,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.91 | $2,900,052,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.91 | $2,900,052,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.91 | $2,900,052,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.91 | $2,900,052,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.91 | $2,900,052,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.91 | $2,900,052,384 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.91 | $2,900,052,384 | 6 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.