Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.58-0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVAH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVAH — director transition
Dated 2026-08-07
Director — Dr. Erica Schwartz: Dr. Erica Schwartz resigned to take a new role as the Director of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Why it matters: Changes to EBITDA guidance show how well the business is doing. This shows overall health.
Supportive ifThe 2026 EBITDA guidance is now over $365 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is the same or lower than $365 million.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance shows growth from the Family First Homecare acquisition. This means strong demand for services.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance increases to between $2.63 and $2.65 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance stays the same or goes down from current levels.
Why it matters: If other companies show weaker signals, Aveanna may look better. This could get investors interested.
Supportive ifAt least two peer companies show a drop in quality status to 'fragile' or worse.
Worry ifMost peer companies maintain or improve their quality status to 'robust'.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue and EBITDA growth keeps going after the Family First buy.
Watch forRevenue is over $647.9 million. This shows strong growth after the acquisition.
Also watch forRevenue is under $600 million. This suggests problems with integration or slower growth.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could enhance Aveanna's service offerings and market position. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifManagement says Family First Holding is now part of their business.
Worry ifThe integration of Family First Holding has delays or problems.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on revenue and EBITDA. It is a key indicator of ongoing performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it shows the healthcare sector is improving. This could benefit Aveanna's performance.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is close to 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Good integration shows Aveanna can grow by buying other companies. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifFamily First Homecare will bring in at least $70 million in revenue for 2026.
Worry ifFamily First Homecare may not meet revenue goals or may face big integration problems.
Why it matters: Exceeding this guidance shows strong growth and confidence in operations.
Supportive ifRevenue guidance for 2026 exceeds $2.68 billion, indicating strong growth.
Worry ifRevenue guidance is revised down from $2.68 billion.
Why it matters: Changes could greatly affect revenue and profits. This will impact overall performance.
Worry ifGovernment news shows reimbursement rates will go up for home health services.
Less concerning ifGovernment news shows reimbursement rates will go down for home health services.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $444 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,944 loss on $10,000 · 39.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.