Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc. (AVAH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.67-3.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVAH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
AVAH — director transition
Dated 2026-10-02
Director — Steven E. Rodgers: An independent director serving on key committees resigned immediately, which is a genuine departure but typically less material than an executive officer departure.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin was 32.6%, down from 35.8% a year earlier. Another drop would point to more pressure on each dollar of revenue.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 32.6%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin is at or above 32.6%.
Why it matters: Family First added scale, but Aveanna's Q2 gross margin fell to 32.6% from 35.8%. Later results can show how growth and margins move together.
Watch forLater results show revenue growth and gross margin at or above 32.6%.
Also watch forLater results show gross margin below 32.6% as revenue grows.
Why it matters: Q2 results led Aveanna to raise its full-year revenue guide. Q3 results test whether growth stays on track.
Supportive ifOn November 12, Q3 revenue and new guidance point to full-year revenue above $2.68 billion.
Worry ifQ3 results lead Aveanna to cut its full-year revenue guide below $2.68 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $372 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,627 loss on $10,000 · 36.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.