Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-11-02 · fmp
$30.63 → $30.63 · observed estimates
Broadcom (AVGO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$291.53-10.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVGO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
AI semiconductor revenue reaches at least $10.8B in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Broadcom's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.8 USD_BILLIONS. | Intact | AI semiconductor revenue falls below $10.8B in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-11-02 · fmp
$30.63 → $30.63 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 10, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large technology growth business with strong recent financial performance, led by rapid AI semiconductor growth. The long-term thesis is intact, though management execution has been volatile and the overall evidence has medium confidence.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says AVGO is cheap versus peers, while another shows a premium versus peers. The market’s expectations appear broadly justified rather than fragile, but the evidence does not show exactly what growth investors are assuming.
AI semiconductor revenue has grown sharply, and management forecasts further growth in the near term. Strategic partnerships show mixed progress, while quarterly dividends have risen consistently; a recent capital-allocation event is a negative to watch. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but peer misses and a deep miss in AVGO’s recent history remain relevant risks.
The thesis depends on continued AI semiconductor growth and whether management can deliver on its priorities. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative. Fed rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, strong AI growth supports an intact thesis, but management execution and guidance remain key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Q2 semiconductor revenue from AI of $10.8 billion grew 143% year-over-year, above our forecast, driven by increasing demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking,” said Hock Tan, President and CEO of Broadcom Inc. “The momentum continues and in Q3 we expect semiconductor revenue from AI to grow over 200 percent year-over-year to $16.0 billion.”” “Q1 AI revenue of $8.4 billion grew 106% year-over-year, above our forecast, driven by robust demand for custom AI accelerators and AI networking,” said Hock Tan, President and CEO of Broadcom Inc. “Our AI revenue growth is accelerating, and we expect AI semiconductor revenue to be $10.7 billion in Q2.”” Revenue was $22.187 billion in 2026-Q2.
Progress in developing and supplying custom TPUs for Google | It has strong partnerships with Apple and Google for custom chips. | Improving | loss or failure to advance TPU development for Google | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Quarterly dividend of at least $0.65 per share | Dividends are steady at $0.65 per share quarterly. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.65 per share quarterly | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““In fiscal year 2025 adjusted EBITDA increased 35% year-over-year to a record $43.0 billion, and free cash flow was strong at $26.9 billion,” said Kirsten Spears, CFO of Broadcom Inc. “Based on increased cash flows in fiscal year 2025, we are increasing our quarterly common stock dividend by 10% to $0.65 per share for fiscal year 2026.” “2 Quarterly Dividends The Board of Directors of Broadcom has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.65 per share.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$281.86B → $281.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | $30.63 | $281,860,976,296 | 17 / 40 |
| 2026-11-04 | $30.63 | $281,860,976,296 | 17 / 40 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 49 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.