Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Avient (AVNT)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.32-5.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.53 → 3.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVNT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain full year adjusted EPS near $3.05 | The company aims for full year EPS near $3.05. | Intact | Adjusted EPS falls below $2.93 or above $3.17 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical materials business with a currently constructive but not risk-free long-term thesis. Recent results have been strong and management is delivering on stated priorities, though earnings quality is assessed as fragile and the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
The valuation evidence describes AVNT as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap that is slightly negative and priced-in fragility rated low. The overall pricing signal is justified, so the evidence does not point to a large gap between expectations and the business setup.
Near term, recent earnings beats and higher 2026 adjusted EPS guidance support continued earnings growth, while margin expansion and debt repayment show progress on productivity and balance-sheet priorities. The CEO transition adds uncertainty, and a guidance cut after a recent increase would damage credibility; peer misses and a recent history of a deep miss also call for caution.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on management sustaining earnings growth, productivity gains, and debt reduction without reversing its guidance. Sector bellwethers LIN, ECL, and SHW are useful signals: continued strong results could support the materials-sector tailwind, while weaker results could weaken it.
The one-to-three-year view remains intact, with strong recent performance and improving execution offset by fragile earnings quality, a CEO transition, and sensitivity to sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is expected above $200 million in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $200 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $-64.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $200 million free cash flow. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-64,800,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 17.7% | A primary condition in Avient's published investment case. The stated target is >= 17.7% adjusted EBITDA margin. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 17.5% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our strategy is delivering tangible results by aligning Avient’s capabilities with high-growth secular trends and advancing productivity initiatives that support top-line growth and margin expansion.” “Our performance reflects the team’s execution of our strategy to intersect Avient’s capabilities with high growth secular trends while driving productivity improvements to enable both top-line growth and margin expansion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.38 → $3.55 · observed estimates
$3.50B → $3.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.38 | $3,499,297,740 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.47 | $3,526,565,100 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.47 | $3,526,565,100 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.47 | $3,526,565,100 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.50 | $3,523,794,770 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.50 | $3,523,794,770 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.50 | $3,523,794,770 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.38 | $3,497,111,092 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.53 | $3,532,856,315 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.53 | $3,532,878,538 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.53 | $3,532,878,538 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.53 | $3,532,878,538 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.55 | $3,532,878,538 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.55 | $3,532,878,538 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.55 | $3,532,878,538 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.55 | $3,532,878,538 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.55 | $3,533,626,638 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.55 | $3,533,626,638 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.55 | $3,533,626,638 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.55 | $3,533,637,749 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.