Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-03 · fmp
Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.97-14.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.35 → 3.35 EPS · FY ending Jul 3, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVNW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA near $35 million in fiscal 2026 | Profit guidance targets adjusted EBITDA around $35 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $35 million in fiscal 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk, smaller-cap technology business with a mixed execution record, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by North American growth and a larger backlog, but recent momentum has weakened.
The valuation evidence points to AVNW being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already cautious. The valuation signal has weakened recently, and the evidence does not show a high-fragility setup.
Near-term results may remain uneven: management lowered fiscal 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance, though North American revenue and backlog have grown. Cost reductions are a positive, but the company remains loss-making and recent earnings surprises have been erratic; a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management delivering against its revised guidance while sustaining North American growth and backlog expansion. A further guidance cut would weaken the case, while steadier technology-sector results and lower interest rates could improve the business backdrop.
For the 1 to 3 year view, AVNW has signs of demand and cost discipline, but its lowered outlook and loss-making profile make execution the central uncertainty. The long-term thesis remains intact, with elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Aviat Networks, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Positive EPS surprises in at least 3 of next 4 quarters. |
| Intact |
| EPS misses in 2 or more of next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fiscal 2026 revenue near $428 million | Aviat Networks aims for fiscal 2026 revenue near $428 million. | Intact | Fiscal 2026 revenue falls below $428 million | Revenue: $120.887M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $428 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 2026120,887,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount to peers with P/E near 11 | Its valuation is cheap versus peers with a P/E of 11. | Intact | P/E rises above 20 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 12.92x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202612.9221 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.35 → $3.35 · observed estimates
$0.50B → $0.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | $3.35 | $501,231,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.35 | $501,231,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.35 | $501,231,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.35 | $501,231,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.35 | $500,823,250 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.