Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.78+2.38%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVNW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVNW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026, Aviat Networks, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended March 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company also posted to its website an Investor Presentation with respect to its third quarter ended March 27, 2026. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purpo…
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin shows less profit and more operational issues.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin reported below 29%.
Less concerning ifGAAP gross margin reported at 29% or higher.
Why it matters: If Adjusted EBITDA drops below this level, it means profits are getting worse.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is below $4 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA is above $4 million. This shows better cost management.
Why it matters: The company cut its adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026. This result will show if they can improve performance.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 is above $10 million. This shows progress toward the new range.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q4 is below $10 million. This shows ongoing struggles.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well the company is doing.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was more than $50 million for fiscal 2027.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $35 million for fiscal 2027.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$137 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $448 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,357 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If North America revenue growth turns negative, it shows weakness in a key market. This could hurt overall performance.
Worry ifNorth America revenue growth is negative year over year.
Less concerning ifNorth America revenue growth is still positive compared to last year.
Why it matters: The company missed earnings expectations recently. Q4 results will show if they can recover.
Worry ifQ4 earnings report shows a profit or meets analyst expectations.
Less concerning ifQ4 earnings report shows another miss or a loss.
Why it matters: Any more downward changes would show bigger problems in making revenue.
Worry ifManagement cuts fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to less than $428 million.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to more than $428 million.
Why it matters: A drop in cash could signal liquidity issues. This may raise concerns about financial health.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents fall below $78.1 million.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents remain at or above $78.1 million.
Why it matters: New M&A deals could signal growth strategies and tax benefits for the company.
Supportive ifA big acquisition or merger is announced.
Worry ifNo M&A activity announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue drops below $100 million, it shows demand is getting worse. This will affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $100 million. This is a drop from $112.6 million last year.
Less concerning ifIf Q3 revenue is $100 million or more, it shows stability or recovery.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show important details about revenue and profit trends.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and EBITDA are better than in past quarters.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and EBITDA are still going down.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a slowdown, impacting Aviat's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its median. This shows a possible slowdown.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is above its median. This means expansion may continue.
Why it matters: Earnings results show trends in revenue and profit.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth or beats expectations.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a drop in revenue or misses expectations.
Why it matters: Management's guidance for fiscal 2027 revenue is a key indicator of growth. If confirmed, it shows stability in the business.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue guidance is confirmed at $455 to $470 million.
Worry ifGuidance is revised down to below $455 million.
Why it matters: Continued growth in North America is crucial for Aviat's overall revenue health. It indicates strong demand in a key market.
Supportive ifNorth America revenue grows year over year by more than 15%.
Worry ifNorth America revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Improving gross margins signal better product mix and cost control. This can enhance profitability.
Supportive ifGross margin improves to above 31% in Q1.
Worry ifGross margin remains below 30% in Q1.