Aviat Networks, Inc. (AVNW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.97-14.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVNW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 67.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
AVNW — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-06
Chief Operations Officer — Khashayar "Hash" Pakbaz: The filing discloses the internal promotion of an existing executive from VP, Chief Digital & Information Officer to SVP and Chief Operations Officer.
Why it matters: Aviat set FY27 revenue guidance at $455 million to $470 million. Results near or above the low end would build on FY26 growth.
Supportive ifFY27 revenue reaches at least $455 million, the low end of guidance.
Worry ifFY27 revenue falls below $455 million or management lowers the guidance range.
Why it matters: Q4 non-GAAP gross margin fell to 30.9% from 34.7% a year earlier. A further drop would add pressure to the new profit target.
Worry ifQ1 non-GAAP gross margin is below 30%.
Less concerning ifQ1 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 30.9%, matching or topping Q4.
Why it matters: FY26 Adjusted EBITDA was $36.7 million. The new FY27 range calls for $50 million to $55 million.
Worry ifFY27 Adjusted EBITDA is below $50 million. Or, management cuts the range below $50 million.
Less concerning ifFY27 Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $50 million, the low end of guidance.
Why it matters: North America revenue rose 17.8% in Q4, while full-year revenue grew just 1.2%. Continued regional growth could help lift total sales.
Supportive ifA future quarter shows North America revenue above the same quarter last year.
Worry ifA future quarter shows North America revenue at or below the same quarter last year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $454 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,357 loss on $10,000 · 43.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Aviat disclosed a large order from an existing U.S. customer. Its timing and delivery can show whether backlog turns into sales.
Supportive ifAviat reports revenue from the order and its backlog remains above the $367 million FY26 year-end level.
Worry ifThe order is delayed or canceled, or backlog falls below $367 million year over year.