Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$0.93 → $0.93 · observed estimates
Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.51-1.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execution of $100M stock repurchase program | It has a $100M stock buyback program to support the share price. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Stock Repurchase Authorization On June 3, 2026, the Board of Directors approved a stock repurchase program, which permits the Company to repurchase up to $100 million of shares of the Company’s common stock over the next 36 months, effective June 3, 2026 (the “2026 Program”).” “The Company currently has a $100 million share-repurchase authorization, which provides meaningful flexibility.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$0.93 → $0.93 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AVO is an operating business with a potential integration-driven improvement story, rather than a clear turnaround based on the evidence here. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: momentum improved, but recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and confidence is medium.
AVO is expensive versus peers, with a 1.23 premium, while the expectations gap is negative. The valuation evidence is tagged as justified and shows low fragility, but that does not remove the risk that expectations are hard to meet.
Near term, results may remain uneven: recent performance is neutral, although the company reported an earnings beat and momentum rose. Management has raised Calavo’s annualized synergy target to more than $30 million and is progressing integration, but execution is mixed; the repurchase program is on track and capital spending remains aligned with guidance.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on completing integration and realizing the targeted synergies within 18 months. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, AVO has a credible integration opportunity, but its elevated risks, below-cohort recent performance, and expensive valuation make execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Positive cash flow from operations | Cash flow and profits should improve from recent losses. | Improving | Cash flow from operations remains negative over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-4.9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0 cash flow from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 8, 2026-4,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from negative $7M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Mission Produce, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$0 operating income. | Improving | Operating income remains negative over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $500,000 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0 operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 8, 2026500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 25% next fiscal year | Mission Produce grows revenue about 25% next year after acquiring Calavo. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 15% next fiscal year | Revenue growth: 25.8% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=25% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 8, 202625.803746 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.98B → $1.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | $0.93 | $1,979,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.93 | $1,979,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.93 | $1,979,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.93 | $1,979,000,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.