Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.51-1.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
AVO — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-09-16
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. As part of Mission Produce, Inc.’s (the “Company”) ongoing efforts to review and optimize its combined distribution network and operations following the Company’s acquisition of Calavo Growers, Inc. (“Calavo”), which was completed on May 28, 2026, the Company has decided to close three of its facilities across the Company’s distribution network and to implement workforce reductions related to the facility closures and the consolidation of cer…
Why it matters: Mission bought shares under its new plan. A lower share count would show that management is putting the authorization to work.
Supportive ifA future filing reports more shares bought under the $100 million plan and a lower share count.
Worry ifA future filing reports no further purchases, or the share count rises despite the plan.
Why it matters: Mission aims to turn over 90% of adjusted net income as cash. It also aims to cut net debt to below 1.5 times Adjusted EBITDA.
Supportive ifMission reports cash conversion above 90% over time. It also reports net debt below 1.5 times Adjusted EBITDA.
Worry ifCash conversion stays below 90%, and net debt stays at or above 1.5 times Adjusted EBITDA.
Why it matters: Q2 margins fell when supply did not match demand for core fruit sizes. Q3 gross margin was still down year over year.
Supportive ifIn the next results, gross margin rises above 9.9%, the Q3 level, and adjusted EBITDA grows year over year.
Worry ifGross margin stays at or below 9.9%, or adjusted EBITDA falls year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,409 loss on $10,000 · 34.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.