Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.68+0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
AVO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-08
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 8, 2026, Mission Produce, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including the related information set forth in the press release attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein, is being “furnished” and shall not be deem…
Why it matters: Negative operating income shows the company is having trouble making money. This trend must change.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is still below $0. This shows the company is still struggling.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating income is positive. This shows the company is making more money.
Why it matters: When a company buys back shares, it shows management believes in its value. This can help the stock price.
Supportive ifAt least $30 million of shares repurchased by the end of Q3.
Worry ifLess than $10 million of shares repurchased by the end of Q3, indicating lack of confidence.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This can attract investors.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by at least 10% in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same compared to last quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company can invest and pay debts. This is key for long-term health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases by at least 15% in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations decreases or stays the same compared to the previous quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $368 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,409 loss on $10,000 · 34.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Recovery in avocado prices is key for better margins and profits. It shows if supply and demand are stabilizing.
Supportive ifAverage avocado prices have gone up a lot. They were very low in Q2.
Worry ifAvocado prices are still low. This shows ongoing margin pressure and possible losses.
Why it matters: Better margins show stronger pricing power and cost control after recent issues.
Supportive ifGross margin improves from 7.0% in Q2 to above 8.0% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin declines further below 7.0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for making money in the long run. It shows better cost control.
Supportive ifOperating income is positive in Q3. This is a recovery from the loss in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income is still negative in Q3. This shows ongoing challenges in making money.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can recover from its recent losses. Investors will look for signs of improved profitability and cash flow.
Watch forQ3 earnings report shows net income is back in the positive after a $7.2 million loss in Q2.
Also watch forQ3 earnings report shows another net loss. This shows ongoing financial struggles.
Why it matters: Sector growth can impact Mission Produce's performance. A strong sector can lift all players.
Watch forConsumer staples revenue growth speeds up above 5% year over year.
Also watch forConsumer staples revenue growth remains below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow from operations shows money problems. They need to improve for stability.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still below $0. This shows financial strain.
Less concerning ifPositive cash flow from operations shows recovery. This is a good sign for finances.
Why it matters: If revenue growth recovers, it shows more demand and better prices for avocados. This is important for making more money.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth is over 15% compared to last year. This shows strong demand recovery.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year, showing continued demand weakness.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved efficiency. It means better financial health after recent drops.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is positive in Q3. This reverses the negative $18 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative. This shows there are ongoing problems.