Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.42-2.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.50 → 0.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVPT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve 26% growth in Annual Recurring Revenue to $526.4 million | It aims 26% growth in recurring revenue to $526 million. | Improving | ARR growth falls below 20% by year-end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AVPT is a growth-focused technology business with a multi-year view tied to continued revenue and ARR expansion. Its thesis is intact, with recent financial performance in the top half of its industry, but elevated risk and expensive valuation leave little room for weaker execution.
The valuation is expensive, even though the evidence labels it cheap versus peers; the peer comparison and valuation signal point in different directions. The expectations gap is slightly negative, which suggests expectations are close to, but a little above, the model’s view. Valuation has fallen recently, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified with low fragility.
Near term, management is on track with its 2026 growth priorities: Q2 revenue growth was 22%, above the 19% target, and full-year ARR and revenue guidance imply continued expansion. Three recent earnings events were positive, and management raised guidance in August. Near-term miss risk is described as quiet, but a later guidance cut would damage credibility, especially given the company’s history of a deep miss and recent peer misses.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management sustaining its growth targets and preserving the credibility gained from raised guidance. Near term, a reversal and guidance cut would be an unfavorable signal. Fed rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop, though the evidence does not establish how much these factors would affect AVPT.
Over the next one to three years, AVPT’s growth execution supports an intact long-term thesis, but its expensive valuation and elevated risk make continued delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| AvePoint grows revenue about 22% yearly to $512 million in 2026. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 19% in Q2 2026 |
Revenue growth: 22.03% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=22% YoY revenue growth to $512.4 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202622.032386 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain operating profit near $94.6 million in 2026 | Profit from operations stays strong near $95 million. | Intact | Operating profit falls below $80 million in 2026 | Operating margin: 8.21% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$94.6 million operating profit. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20268.212378 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.50 → $0.48 · observed estimates
$0.62B → $0.62B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.50 | $616,425,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.50 | $616,263,260 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.50 | $616,427,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.49 | $615,983,420 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.49 | $615,983,420 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.49 | $615,983,420 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.49 | $615,105,460 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.50 | $615,163,190 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.50 | $615,163,190 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.50 | $616,427,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.50 | $616,427,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.50 | $616,427,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.50 | $616,427,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.50 | $616,427,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.50 | $616,427,021 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.50 | $615,216,780 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.50 | $615,216,780 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.50 | $615,216,780 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.50 | $615,216,780 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.50 | $615,216,780 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.50 | $615,216,751 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.50 | $615,218,994 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.50 | $615,248,765 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.50 | $615,248,765 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.50 | $615,248,765 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.50 | $615,248,765 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.50 | $615,248,765 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.50 | $615,248,765 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.50 | $615,248,765 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.48 | $615,143,043 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.48 | $615,142,168 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.48 | $615,142,168 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.48 | $615,142,168 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.48 | $615,142,168 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.48 | $615,142,168 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.48 | $615,142,168 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.48 | $615,142,168 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.48 | $615,142,168 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.48 | $615,141,618 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.48 | $615,141,618 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.48 | $615,140,206 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.48 | $615,140,206 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.48 | $615,140,206 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.48 | $615,140,206 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.48 | $615,140,206 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.48 | $615,140,206 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.48 | $615,140,206 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.48 | $615,140,206 | 7 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.