AvePoint, Inc. (AVPT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$16.42-2.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVPT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 19.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
Why it matters: AvePoint plans higher spending in the second half. Q3 income will show how that spending affects profit.
Watch forQ3 non-GAAP operating income is above $22.0 million, the top of the stated range.
Also watch forQ3 non-GAAP operating income is below $21.0 million, the bottom of the stated range.
Why it matters: AvePoint's Q2 revenue grew 22%. The tech sector is still growing, but its growth trend is easing.
Worry ifAvePoint's next reported revenue growth is below 22% year over year.
Less concerning ifAvePoint's next reported revenue growth is at least 22% year over year.
Why it matters: ARR grew 27% in Q2. The company raised its ARR outlook, while its revenue and profit outlook fell from Q1 levels.
Watch forYear-end ARR is above $528.1 million, the top of the Aug. 6 range.
Also watch forThe company lowers its ARR range below $522.1 million or reports year-end ARR below that level.
Why it matters: The Aug. 6 report set this range, with 18% growth at the midpoint. Results will test whether Q2 growth continues.
Watch forQ3 revenue is above $130.2 million, the top of the range set on Aug. 6.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $128.2 million, the bottom of the range set on Aug. 6.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$155 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $416 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,704 loss on $10,000 · 37.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.