Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
Avnet (AVT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$76.63-10.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.96 → 12.98 EPS · FY ending Jun 27, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AVT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit rises to about $739M in fiscal Q3 2026 | Profit margins improved with gross profit rising by $151M. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $600M in fiscal Q3 2026 | Gross profit: $865.032M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $739M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026865,031,999 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AVT is a technology distribution business with a growth-and-margin improvement thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or speculative growth case. The thesis is intact, supported by strong recent results, though management consistency and earnings quality remain concerns.
AVT is described as cheap versus peers, and the evidence labels current expectations as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is negative, but confidence in that reading is medium, so the valuation signal is not conclusive.
Near-term results may continue to reflect recent revenue growth and margin expansion: fourth-quarter revenue rose 48% year over year, while operating income margin improved. However, earnings surprises have been trending down, and a guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk; the recent decline in company quality also tempers the strong results.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining growth and margin gains without cutting guidance. A Federal Reserve rate-cut cycle or stabilization among technology peers could improve the sector backdrop, while weaker peer results or a guidance cut would weigh on the setup.
For the 1-to-3-year view, AVT’s operating momentum supports an intact thesis, but falling quality signals and uneven execution make continued delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our team is executing well, driving improved operating margins and leverage, supported by continued disciplined cost management and inventory optimization.” “We delivered record sales while growing profitability at more than two and a half times the rate of sales growth, demonstrating the operating leverage in our business model.” Operating income was $231.019 million in 2026-Q4.
Operating income rises to about $205.5M in fiscal Q3 2026 | Operating income increased by $62M, showing better profits. | Intact | Operating income falls below $150M in fiscal Q3 2026 | Operating income: $317.526M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $205.5M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026317,526,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $7.12B in fiscal Q3 2026 | A primary condition in Avnet's published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.12B. | Intact | Revenue falls below $6.0B in fiscal Q3 2026 | Revenue: $8.295B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.12B. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 20268,295,377,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.52 → $12.98 · observed estimates
$39.50B → $39.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.52 | $39,500,100,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.96 | $39,494,923,042 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.96 | $39,494,977,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.96 | $39,494,977,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.96 | $39,494,977,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.96 | $39,494,977,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.96 | $39,494,977,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.96 | $39,494,977,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.96 | $39,494,977,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.98 | $39,670,227,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.98 | $39,670,227,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.98 | $39,670,227,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.98 | $39,670,227,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.98 | $39,670,227,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.98 | $39,670,227,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.98 | $39,670,227,167 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.98 | $39,670,227,167 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.