Avnet (AVT)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$92.06+1.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyTechnology DistributorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AVT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 21.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AVT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-21
Other Events. On August 19, 2026, Avnet, Inc. (“Avnet” or the “Company”) priced a public offering of $550 million in aggregate principal amount of 5.650% Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”). Avnet expects to use the net proceeds from the offering to repay amounts owed under the Company’s senior unsecured revolving credit facility and the Company’s accounts receivable securitization program. The offering was made pursuant to an Underwriting Agreement, dated August 19, 2026, by and among the Company a…
Why it matters: Higher operating margins mean good cost control. This shows strong operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin guidance for Q1 should be above 3.8%. This shows better efficiency.
Worry ifThe operating margin is below 3.8%. This suggests there may be cost pressures.
Why it matters: High cash flow usage indicates strong operational needs and growth. It shows how well Avnet is managing its growth.
Supportive ifCash flow for operations is over $54 million. This supports growth.
Worry ifCash flow for operations is under $54 million. This shows possible growth issues.
Why it matters: A higher margin shows Avnet is managing costs well while growing. This supports profit growth.
Supportive ifOperating income margin is over 3.1%. This shows better cost management.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 3.0%. This suggests cost pressures.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better cost management. This is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifThe operating income margin is over 3.8% in Q1 of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifThe operating income margin is less than 3.5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$149 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $308 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,745 loss on $10,000 · 17.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better inventory levels mean better supply chain management. This can help cash flow and efficiency.
Supportive ifInventory days drop below 70 days in the next quarter.
Worry ifInventory days remain above 75 days.
Why it matters: Sustained growth at Farnell indicates strong performance in a key segment. This supports overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifFarnell has double-digit sales growth for the fourth quarter in a row.
Worry ifFarnell sales growth under 10% shows possible market weakness.
Why it matters: Strong sales guidance shows management believes in ongoing revenue growth. It shows market demand and strength.
Supportive ifSales guidance for Q1 fiscal 2027 meets or exceeds $9.15 billion.
Worry ifSales guidance falls below $9.00 billion.
Why it matters: A big drop could hurt Avnet's growth funding.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $54 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains stable or increases.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost control and strong pricing power.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves beyond current levels.
Worry ifGross profit margin goes down or stays the same.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating EPS guidance shows strong earnings growth. It shows the company's profits and investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS for Q1 fiscal 2027 meets or exceeds $2.85.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS falls below $2.80.