Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
American States Water Company (AWR)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
$88.84+0.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.82 → 3.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AWR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure level | A supporting condition in American States Water Company's published investment case. The stated target is ~$205 million. | Intact | Capital expenditure exceeds $225 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AWR is a relatively steady utility business with an added growth contribution from contracted services. Its multi-year view is intact, though recent momentum has weakened and confidence in the evidence is medium.
AWR trades at a premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable business strength. The snapshot flags that this premium may be difficult to justify given concerns about execution quality, so expectations appear demanding.
Near term, approved customer-rate increases and higher contracted-services contributions are supporting earnings, and management is delivering on those priorities. However, company momentum has fallen, recent performance is mixed, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
The multi-year view depends on continued delivery in contracted services and effective implementation of customer-rate increases while capital spending stays near management’s planned range. Near-term sector conditions also matter: Fed rate cuts or continued strength among utility peers could support the backdrop, while weaker guidance could challenge the thesis.
For the next one to three years, AWR has an intact but more demanding thesis: operating priorities are showing progress, while weaker momentum and a premium valuation leave less room for execution setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| American States Water grows earnings steadily with about $0.65 EPS from contracted services in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Contracted services EPS contribution falls below $0.63 per share in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The contracted services segment is expected to contribute $0.63 to $0.67 per share for the full year of 2026.” “AWR’s current policy is to achieve a CAGR in the dividend of more than 7% over the long-term.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Total company revenue growth | A primary condition in American States Water Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 5% YoY over next 12 months | Revenue growth: 5.37% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 4, 20265.373914 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.79 → $3.82 · observed estimates
$0.74B → $0.74B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.79 | $735,333,560 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.79 | $738,152,840 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.79 | $738,152,840 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.83 | $740,689,044 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.80 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.82 | $744,701,898 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.