American States Water Company (AWR)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
$88.53-1.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AWR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 64.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AWR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026 , American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR) released earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall it be deemed to be incorporated by refe…
Why it matters: Water supply costs affect earnings. Big changes could hurt profits.
Worry ifWater supply costs increase by more than $10 million compared to Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifWater supply costs remain stable or decrease compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: New rate approvals affect revenue and earnings. They are key for profit in the utility sector.
Watch forApproval of new customer rates by the CPUC that increase revenue by at least $10 million.
Also watch forDenial or delay of new customer rate increases by the CPUC.
Why it matters: Staying within the planned CAPEX range is key for growth and infrastructure investment.
Worry ifCAPEX of $185 million or more shows a commitment to building infrastructure.
Less concerning ifCAPEX below $185 million may mean cutbacks in planned investments.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows AWR is committed to its growth plans. It also indicates effective capital allocation.
Supportive ifAWR confirms capital investments for 2026 are within the $185 to $225 million range.
Worry ifAWR reports capital investments less than $185 million or more than $225 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if AWR's growth strategies are working. A miss could raise concerns.
Watch forQ2 earnings per share exceed $0.76, showing growth in utility segments.
Also watch forQ2 earnings per share are below $0.74. This shows possible problems.
Why it matters: AWR aims to invest $185 to $225 million in 2026. Meeting this target shows commitment to growth.
Watch forQ2 2026 capital spending is between $185 million and $225 million.
Also watch forQ2 2026 capital spending is less than $185 million.
Why it matters: Higher EPS from contracted services shows good project work. It raises overall earnings.
Supportive ifContracted services EPS is $0.67 for the full year 2026.
Worry ifContracted services EPS is below $0.63 for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: AWR has a strong dividend history. Changes could signal financial health.
Watch forQ2 dividend increases from $0.5040 per share.
Also watch forQ2 dividend remains at $0.5040 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: The EPS from contracted services is key to AWR's growth. A strong contribution signals progress.
Supportive ifContracted services EPS contribution is over $0.67 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifContracted services EPS contribution falls below $0.63 per share for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Continued growth in the water segment is key for overall earnings. It shows if rate increases and customer demand are effective.
Supportive ifWater segment earnings per share grows year over year by more than $0.18.
Worry ifWater segment earnings per share growth is less than $0.18 year over year.
Why it matters: Increasing dividends show that the company is doing well. This is good for shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend increases by more than 7% year over year.
Worry ifQuarterly dividend increase is less than 7% year over year.
Why it matters: Staying within the $185 to $225 million target shows commitment to growth and infrastructure.
Watch forCapital spending is $210 million or more for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending is below $185 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in how much people use water can affect earnings.
Watch forCustomer water use goes up by more than 4% from last year.
Also watch forCustomer water use goes down or stays the same from last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $841 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.