Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Axos Financial, Inc. (AX)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$92.46-2.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.82 → 10.91 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete acquisition of $2.3B deposits from Jenius Bank | It acquired $2.3 billion in deposits from Jenius Bank. | Intact | deposits acquired fall below $2.0 billion by 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AX is a financial-sector growth and franchise-building story, rather than a clear turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on lending, deposits, and fee businesses showing evidence of progress, though confidence is medium.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with a durable premium of about 1.29 times peers. The negative expectations gap suggests the market may expect more than the current evidence supports, while low fragility means the pricing signals do not show unusually concentrated vulnerability.
Near-term results are mixed: the latest quarter missed, momentum weakened, and AX has a run of consecutive earnings misses, although estimated miss risk is low. Over the multi-year view, net interest income, deposits, and securities-segment pretax income have grown, but higher expenses leave productivity gains less clear.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would add to the recent earnings concerns. The rate backdrop is another swing factor, since the evidence says Financials tend to benefit when rates stay high; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AX’s thesis rests on continued growth in lending, deposits, and fee businesses, alongside better evidence of cost productivity. The thesis remains intact, but the recent miss and expectations gap make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Axos Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.15 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $1.90 next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $2.25 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=2.15 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 29, 20262.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete acquisition of $3.2B IRAs from Capital One | It also got $3.2 billion in IRAs from Capital One. | Intact | IRA deposits acquired fall below $2.8 billion by 2026-Q3 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near recent 18.5% YoY | A primary condition in Axos Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 20260 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.65 → $10.91 · observed estimates
$1.78B → $1.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.65 | $1,778,965,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.65 | $1,778,965,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.65 | $1,778,965,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.65 | $1,778,965,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.65 | $1,778,965,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.65 | $1,778,965,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.65 | $1,778,965,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.65 | $1,778,765,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.65 | $1,778,965,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.65 | $1,778,765,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.68 | $1,797,053,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.68 | $1,797,053,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.68 | $1,797,053,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.68 | $1,797,053,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.68 | $1,797,053,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.68 | $1,797,053,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.68 | $1,797,053,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.68 | $1,797,053,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.80 | $1,797,046,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.80 | $1,796,699,100 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.80 | $1,796,699,100 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.83 | $1,796,699,100 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.82 | $1,797,837,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.82 | $1,797,921,080 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.82 | $1,797,927,900 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.82 | $1,797,927,900 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.76 | $1,797,923,820 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.93 | $1,814,906,033 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.93 | $1,814,888,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.93 | $1,814,888,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.93 | $1,814,888,617 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.91 | $1,815,055,283 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $10.91 | $1,815,055,283 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.