Axos Financial, Inc. (AX)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$97.95+0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
AX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026 , Axos Financial, Inc. (the “Registrant” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its fiscal third quarter results of operations for the period ended March 31, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The Registrant is furnishing the related quarterly earnings supplement in two different formats as Exhibits 99.2 and 99.3. Pursuant to General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the information in this
Why it matters: Growth in non-interest income shows Axos is adding services. This helps diversify its revenue.
Supportive ifNon-interest income grows more than 49.9% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifNon-interest income growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Net interest income growth is key for Axos's profits. A slowdown may show loan growth or funding cost issues.
Worry ifNet interest income growth falls below 5% year-over-year in the next earnings report.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth goes over 11% year-over-year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Good integration will improve Axos' AI and digital banking. This will help future growth.
Supportive ifManagement shares steps for joining the companies. They see early benefits in digital banking.
Worry ifThere are problems with integration. This delays the benefits from the deal.
Why it matters: High non-interest income growth shows a mix of revenue sources. This shows strength and stability.
Supportive ifNon-interest income for Q1 2027 is over $85 million. This shows growth of over 40% YoY.
Worry ifNon-interest income growth is below 20% YoY. This shows a reliance on traditional banking income.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $270 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,904 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good integration can improve Axos's AI and digital banking. This helps them compete.
Supportive ifAxos will share integration progress with Arc Technologies in six months.
Worry ifIntegration has issues. This slows down the benefits from the acquisition.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may show credit quality problems. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs rise a lot, going beyond what management expected.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs stay the same or drop, showing strong credit quality.
Why it matters: Doing better than this threshold shows strong performance in making fees. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifNon-interest income exceeds $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNon-interest income is below $80 million. This shows weakness in making fees.
Why it matters: A stable net interest margin shows good loan performance and profit.
Supportive ifNet interest margin remains above 4.5% for the next quarter.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 4.5%. This shows possible issues with loan performance.
Why it matters: This acquisition adds a lot to deposits. This is important for funding growth and stability.
Supportive ifTotal deposits will increase by over $3 billion in the next quarter after the purchase.
Worry ifTotal deposits increase by less than $2 billion. This shows possible integration or market problems.
Why it matters: This acquisition of $3.2 billion in IRAs is key for Axos's growth strategy. Success here could boost deposit growth and market position.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close successfully. Deposits will be integrated by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or fails to close as planned.
Why it matters: This acquisition is key for Axos to optimize funding and support loan growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close with about $2.6 billion in deposits.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Low charge-offs show strong credit quality and good risk management.
Supportive ifAnnualized net charge-offs to average loans are below 0.10% for Q1 2027.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are over 0.10% for Q1 2027. This may mean credit quality issues.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal will grow Axos's deposits. It will help their growth plans.
Supportive ifAxos adds $2.3 billion in deposits from Jenius Bank.
Worry ifThe deal may face delays or problems that stop it from finishing.
Why it matters: Slower growth in net interest income may show problems with loan demand or pricing.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Non-interest income growth is important for Axos's revenue. A drop may show problems in fee activities.
Worry ifNon-interest income growth falls below 5% compared to last year in the next report.
Less concerning ifNon-interest income growth remains strong at over 157.7% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in net interest income shows good lending strategies. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifNet interest income grows more than 13.5% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Worry ifIf net interest income growth is below 10%, there may be lending or interest rate issues.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will enhance Axos's digital banking and AI capabilities. This could help attract more customers and improve services.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close as planned in July 2026. Arc's technology will join Axos's operations.
Worry ifThe acquisition may be delayed or fail. This would hurt Axos's growth plans.
Why it matters: This deal could help Axos get more deposits. It may also improve wealth management services.
Supportive ifAxos completes the deal for IRAs with about $3.2 billion in deposits.
Worry ifIf the deal is delayed or fails, Axos may find it hard to diversify deposits.