Axon Enterprise (AXON)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-07
$640.46+2.91%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $640.46. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $640, AXON's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 18× p/s (5.3× the 3.3× p/s peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~71% near-term growth vs our ~36% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $376 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $440–$750. Note: our $376 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($440–$750). Not investment advice.
$440.00 – $750.00 (median $612.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 775% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 8.4 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.43/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $612.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $82.44 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $269.03 | 38.2 | 7.05 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $120.67 | 3.3 | 36.17 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $264.72 | 37.5 | 7.05 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $486.12 | 69.0 | 7.05 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $295.88 | 38.2 | 7.75 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $409.16 | 38.2 | 10.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $238.53 | 3.3 | 71.50 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $402.61 | 37.5 | 10.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $739.33 | 69.0 | 10.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $541.11 | 38.2 | 14.18 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $315.45 | 3.3 | 94.56 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $532.45 | 37.5 | 14.18 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $977.76 | 69.0 | 14.18 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.