Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Axon Enterprise (AXON)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$424.18+1.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.60 → 10.57 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AXON yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA margin near 25.5% in FY26 | A primary condition in Axon Enterprise's published investment case. The stated target is >=25.5%. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 23% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: Axon expects full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5%.” “• 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: Axon expects full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5%, in line with prior margin guidance.” Operating income was $46.778 million in 2026-Q2. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AXON is a high-growth business with recent revenue acceleration, but the evidence does not yet show consistently strong earnings quality. The long-term thesis is on watch: company momentum improved, while recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 2.71 premium measure, and the priced-in assessment is stretched. That leaves limited room for weaker execution, though confidence in the valuation model is low and the evidence does not specify exactly what growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, management’s 2026 revenue growth goal is on track: it raised guidance to 32% to 34%, and reported revenue increased from $603.6 million in 2025-Q1 to $904.4 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 26.8% in 2026-Q2 against full-year guidance of about 25.5%, while capital spending guidance was reduced; both priorities are rated mixed. Near-term earnings risk is assessed as low, but recent surprises have been erratic and trending down, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on AXON sustaining its revenue growth guidance without weakening profitability or execution. Industry conditions are also a swing factor: continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, AXON combines strong growth delivery with elevated risk, fragile earnings quality, and an expensive valuation. The long-term thesis hinges on continued execution and whether that growth can justify the expectations already reflected in the valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage capital expenditures within $160M to $190M in FY26 | A supporting condition in Axon Enterprise's published investment case. The stated target is $160M to $190M. | Intact | Capital expenditures exceed $200M or fall below $140M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $21.049M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $160M to $190M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202621,049,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 30% to 32% revenue growth in FY26 | A primary condition in Axon Enterprise's published investment case. The stated target is 30% to 32% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 25% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 35.28% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 30% to 32% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202635.278623 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We now expect 2026 revenue growth of 32% to 34%, up from 30% to 32% previously, and continue to expect an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25.5%.” “We now expect revenue growth in the range of 30% to 32%, up from 27% to 30% previously, and continue to expect an Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25.5%.” Revenue was $904.389 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.52 → $10.57 · observed estimates
$4.72B → $4.81B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.52 | $4,724,824,130 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.52 | $4,724,824,130 | 20 / 18 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.52 | $4,722,991,280 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.52 | $4,718,254,440 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.65 | $4,801,495,329 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.57 | $4,784,844,050 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.57 | $4,784,851,310 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.57 | $4,784,851,310 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-11 | $10.57 | $4,784,851,310 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.57 | $4,784,851,310 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.56 | $4,793,798,680 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.65 | $4,801,495,329 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.65 | $4,801,495,329 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.65 | $4,801,495,329 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.65 | $4,801,495,329 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.65 | $4,801,495,329 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.65 | $4,801,495,329 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.65 | $4,801,495,329 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.67 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.63 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.63 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.63 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.63 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.63 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.63 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.63 | $4,813,465,350 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.63 | $4,813,462,975 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.63 | $4,813,462,975 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.63 | $4,813,462,975 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.58 | $4,812,992,750 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.58 | $4,812,992,750 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.58 | $4,812,992,750 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.63 | $4,813,462,975 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.63 | $4,813,462,975 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.63 | $4,813,462,975 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.63 | $4,813,462,975 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.61 | $4,802,635,912 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.61 | $4,802,635,912 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.61 | $4,802,635,912 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.61 | $4,802,635,912 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.61 | $4,802,635,912 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.61 | $4,802,635,912 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.61 | $4,802,635,912 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.61 | $4,802,680,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.60 | $4,804,405,725 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.60 | $4,804,408,100 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.60 | $4,804,408,100 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.60 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.60 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.60 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.60 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.60 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.56 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.56 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.56 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.56 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.56 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.56 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.56 | $4,804,251,475 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.56 | $4,804,251,487 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.57 | $4,806,058,925 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.57 | $4,806,058,925 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.57 | $4,806,058,925 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.57 | $4,806,058,925 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.57 | $4,806,058,925 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.57 | $4,806,058,925 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.57 | $4,806,058,925 | 12 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.