Axon Enterprise (AXON)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$515.67-4.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 58.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 34.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AXON — Chief Strategy Officer transition
Dated 2026-07-10
Director — Vivek Mohindra and Eiso Kant: Two new directors were appointed to the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Axon 911 aims to modernize emergency response. Updates will show progress in this key area.
Supportive ifAxon announces new features or integrations for Axon 911 by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo new features or integrations for Axon 911 are announced by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: These products show big innovation. A successful launch could help Axon in the market.
Supportive ifThere is news about successful trials for Axon Vision and Axon Guardian.
Worry ifDelays in the launch or negative feedback from initial trials.
Why it matters: Strong growth in AI products shows good innovation and demand in the market.
Supportive ifAI product revenue growth reported above 700% year over year.
Worry ifAI product revenue growth reported below 700% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher net income margin means better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet income margin improves to above 21% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income margin declines below 21% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: These products are key to Axon's growth strategy. Adoption rates show market acceptance.
Watch forAxon Vision and Axon Guardian are used by 50% of target customers.
Also watch forAdoption rates for Axon Vision and Axon Guardian stay below 20%.
Why it matters: New products can drive future revenue and show Axon's innovation strength.
Supportive ifNew products or features will be announced during Axon Week in April 2026.
Worry ifNo big new product announcements during Axon Week.
Why it matters: A change in revenue guidance would indicate how well Axon is managing demand and growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises its revenue growth forecast to over 34% for the year.
Worry ifManagement lowers its revenue growth forecast to under 32% for the year.
Why it matters: Axon 911 integration may help emergency response. It could also boost sales.
Supportive ifAxon 911 is now integrated with Prepared and Carbyne. It is working.
Worry ifAxon 911 integration may have big delays or problems.
Why it matters: More future bookings show strong demand. Customers trust Axon's products.
Supportive ifFuture contracted bookings grow above 41% year over year.
Worry ifFuture contracted bookings grow below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Axon Vision is a new product that could expand their market. Its launch will show demand.
Supportive ifAxon Vision will launch in Q4 2026.
Worry ifAxon Vision launch is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows Axon can grow and make money. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays around 25.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 25.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue from AI products grows over 700%, it shows strong interest in Axon's innovations.
Supportive ifAI Era Plan product revenue growth exceeds 700% year over year.
Worry ifAI Era Plan product revenue growth falls below 700% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in future contracted bookings shows strong demand and trust in Axon's products.
Supportive ifFuture contracts will be more than $15 billion.
Worry ifFuture contracts will be less than $15 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$287 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $627 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,551 loss on $10,000 · 55.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.