Axon Enterprise (AXON)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
$382.56-9.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 58.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 34.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AXON — capital allocation
Dated 2026-11-05
by reference, insofar as it relates to the unregistered sales of equity securities. The shares of Axon Stock will be issued in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and Regulation D promulgated thereunder. Axon is relying, in part, upon representations from each of the Sellers and each tendering holder that, among other things, it is an “accredited investor” as defined in Rule 501(a) of Regulati…
Why it matters: Axon cited inventory spending and billing timing as cash flow pressures in Q2. Q3 results test the cash flow plan.
Supportive ifQ3 operating cash flow is positive. Management keeps its 2026 outlook above $600 million.
Worry ifQ3 operating cash flow is negative. Or, management cuts its 2026 outlook below $600 million.
Why it matters: Axon raised its 2026 growth outlook after Q2 revenue rose 35%. Q3 results test whether that pace holds.
Supportive ifOn November 5, Q3 revenue growth is at least 32% year over year, and management keeps its 32% to 34% full-year outlook.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 32%, or management cuts its full-year growth outlook below 32%.
Why it matters: Dedrone supported all 11 U.S. World Cup stadiums. New contracts would show demand beyond the event.
Supportive ifAxon reports new paid Dedrone contracts tied to World Cup sites or follow-on use at other venues.
Worry ifAxon reports no new paid contracts from those deployments. Or, it says customers ended the service after the event.
Why it matters: AI Era revenue grew nearly 700% in Q2. Continued uptake could support software growth and customer spending.
Supportive ifQ3 AI Era revenue grows year over year, and Software & Services revenue growth stays at or above 30%.
Worry ifQ3 AI Era revenue falls year over year, or Software & Services revenue growth drops below 30%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$230 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $627 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,607 loss on $10,000 · 46.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.