Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
AMREP Corp (AXR)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.12-0.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.38 → 1.38 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AXR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS remains near or above $1.78 in FY27 | A primary condition in AMREP Corp's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $1.78. | Broken | EPS falls below $1.78 in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
AXR is a small-cap real estate investment with a value-oriented profile, rather than a clear growth story. Its long-term thesis is on watch: management is stable, but recent financial performance has lagged its industry cohort and results have been mixed.
The valuation evidence describes AXR as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment calls the setup justified, with low fragility because weak execution is not paired with an expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
In the near term, results could remain uneven: Q3 2027 revenue and net income were much lower than fiscal 2026 totals, and AXR has missed across recent quarters. Management has maintained positive operating cash flow in the latest periods reported, but newer cash-flow evidence is limited; leadership transitions are ongoing, with no direct financial impact reported.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether management can improve revenue and operating income without losing positive operating cash flow. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate names, while guidance cuts or signs of weakness at sector peers could remove that support. The next earnings call is an important near-term test.
For the 1-to-3-year view, AXR combines a cheap-versus-peers valuation with mixed execution and elevated risk. The thesis remains on watch until results show clearer progress on growth and operating income. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in AMREP Corp's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline better than -7% YoY. |
| Intact |
| revenue decline worse than -7% YoY in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio remains below peer median of 13.77 | A supporting condition in AMREP Corp's published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 13.77. | Intact | PE rises above 13.77 without fundamental improvement | P/E (TTM): 11.21x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202611.2105 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.87 → $1.38 · observed estimates
$0.05B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.87 | $51,930,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.66 | $53,410,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.38 | $44,830,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.