AMREP Corp (AXR)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.14+0.78%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -44.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
AXR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-24
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 24, 2026, AMREP Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release that reported its results of operations for the year ended April 30, 2026. The press release is being furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Why it matters: This report will show how AMREP performed in Q3. It is a key indicator of their financial health.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income above $2M.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income below $1M.
Why it matters: Stable revenue growth is crucial for AMREP's future. It indicates demand for their real estate.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth stabilizes at or above $10M.
Worry ifQ3 revenue drops below $9M.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifReal estate revenue growth rises above 6% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains at or below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: If real estate revenue growth picks up, it could help AMREP's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 5% or higher.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down. It is now below 3%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $412 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,312 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth means more demand. It also shows better operations.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Looking at AMREP and peers like Welltower and Equinix shows if AMREP is doing better or worse.
Watch forAMREP's insight score goes above 5.0. This means better performance.
Also watch forAMREP's insight score falls below 4.0. This means worse performance.
Why it matters: This would show AMREP is improving its revenue growth trend after a mixed performance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is over $13 million. This shows stronger growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $12 million. This points to ongoing revenue issues.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for AMREP to support its growth and operations.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow turns positive and exceeds $5 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating cash flow remains negative or below $0 in Q3.