AMREP Corp (AXR)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.30+2.01%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - DevelopmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers
AXR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-24
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On July 24, 2026, AMREP Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release that reported its results of operations for the year ended April 30, 2026. The press release is being furnished with this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this
Why it matters: The sector notes say growth is slowing, while recent data hints at a change. A pickup would support that shift.
Supportive ifThe sector data shows year-over-year revenue growth rising from its recent low and moving back toward prior highs.
Worry ifThe sector data shows year-over-year revenue growth staying flat or falling further from recent levels.
Why it matters: Positive cash from operations is a stated management priority. The latest figures in the inputs are positive but date from Q1 2026.
Supportive ifA new filing shows positive cash from operations in a later quarter of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifA new filing reports cash used in operations for a later quarter in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Q1 revenue fell to $6.05 million from $17.85 million a year ago. Higher results would show a rebound, though sales can vary by quarter.
Watch forIn the December 11, 2026 results, revenue and net income both top year-earlier levels: $17.85 million and $4.69 million.
Also watch forIn the December 11, 2026 results, revenue stays at or below $6.05 million, or net income stays at or below $276,000.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,103 loss on $10,000 · 31.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.