Axalta (AXTA)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$36.34-2.96%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AXTA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. ("Axalta") issued a press release and posted an earnings call presentation to its website reporting its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for…
Why it matters: The company still targets more than $500 million, though merger cash costs weigh on the total.
Supportive ifAxalta reports full-year 2026 free cash flow above $500 million.
Worry ifAxalta reports full-year free cash flow at or below $500 million.
Why it matters: Axalta cut its full-year EBITDA range after Q3. Q4 results will show whether profit holds near the new plan.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is below $254 million, the low end of the company’s range.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA is at least $254 million, and full-year EBITDA is $1.10 billion or more.
Why it matters: Closing would complete a key management priority. A delay or failed deal would leave that plan unmet.
Supportive ifA company filing or release confirms the merger has closed.
Worry ifA filing says the deal ended, or the company reports a major delay to closing.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,848 loss on $10,000 · 28.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.