Axalta (AXTA)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.78-0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AXTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
AXTA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. issued a press release and posted an earnings call presentation to its website reporting its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99, shall not be deemed “filed” for…
Why it matters: A drop in efficiency could show trouble in managing costs during the merger.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 20% in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 22%. This shows good control.
Why it matters: Better efficiency helps keep profits steady as costs go up.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 22.7% in Q3.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 20.6%. This shows problems in operations.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows careful spending. This is key for operational efficiency.
Watch forCapital spending was between $180 million and $200 million.
Also watch forCapital spending was not between $180 million and $200 million.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may mean lower profits and operational issues.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, the Adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 20%.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, the Adjusted EBITDA margin is more than 20%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,848 loss on $10,000 · 28.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop would show weakness in a key area and lower demand.
Worry ifPerformance Coatings net sales decline more than 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifPerformance Coatings net sales grow or decline less than 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop would show problems with cash flow and how well the company runs.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $68 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash from operations remains above $68 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well Axalta is doing in a tough market.
Watch forQ3 net sales growth reported at low single digits (LSD%).
Also watch forQ3 net sales growth reported as flat or negative.
Why it matters: Updates on the merger will show if Axalta can make more money.
Supportive ifA press release will confirm key steps taken in the merger process.
Worry ifNo news or delays were announced about the merger timeline.
Why it matters: Falling below this level could show weak performance due to merger costs.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is less than $295 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is more than $305 million. This shows strong performance.
Why it matters: Flat or positive growth shows strength in a tough market. It helps Axalta's outlook.
Supportive ifNet sales for Q2 2026 show year-over-year growth above 0%.
Worry ifNet sales for Q2 2026 decline year-over-year.
Why it matters: Completing the merger could make a stronger coatings company. It may also boost market trust.
Supportive ifThe merger is done and approvals are in by early 2027.
Worry ifThe merger has big delays or rules that stop it from finishing.
Why it matters: Missing this target could show problems in making cash after the merger.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $500 million for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow is over $500 million, showing good cash generation.
Why it matters: These changes will affect how the new company is run and could impact shareholder value.
Watch forGovernance changes will happen as planned after the merger closes.
Also watch forGovernance changes may be delayed. They might not happen as planned.