Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$108.07+2.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
60.76 → 61.60 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 19 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 18 to 19; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BABA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Earnings per share (EPS) | A primary condition in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's published investment case. The stated target is >= $44 EPS. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $40 | Diluted EPS: CNY 3.68 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $44 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 20, 20263.68 CNY/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-sensitive consumer business with elevated risk, rather than a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround. The long-term thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it.
The valuation label recently changed to inexpensive, and the valuation model has high confidence. The evidence does not say what earnings expectations the market already assumes, so the expectations gap is unclear; reported fragility is low.
Near term, a run of earnings misses and a stated 52% miss probability make the next report an important risk to watch. Over the multi-year view, the evidence is too thin to establish a fundamental growth path, and slower economic growth could weigh more heavily on this growth-sensitive sector.
A favorable sector setup depends on bellwethers such as AMZN, PDD, and MELI continuing to report strong results and raise guidance. The setup weakens if they miss or guide lower, or if GDP growth slows materially from 2.1% to below 2%.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the inexpensive valuation label is balanced by elevated risk, repeated earnings misses, and low confidence in the overall evidence. The thesis depends on clearer company fundamentals and the direction of consumer-sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company adapts despite regulatory challenges. |
| Under Pressure |
| New regulatory penalties exceeding $600 million or major AI bans |
Qualitative: No new penalties >$600M or AI bans reported Alibaba shares dropped on China regulatory scrutiny, but no new material penalties or AI bans were reported. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Alibaba's total revenue growth | A primary condition in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.13 trillion annual revenue. | Under Pressure | annual revenue falls below $1.0 trillion | Revenue: CNY 268.194B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.13 trillion annual revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 20, 2026268,193,757,000 CNY · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$60.73 → $61.60 · observed estimates
$1263.19B → $1270.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $60.73 | $1,263,194,225,496 | 18 / 29 |
| 2026-07-25 | $60.73 | $1,263,194,225,496 | 18 / 29 |
| 2026-07-26 | $60.73 | $1,263,194,225,496 | 18 / 29 |
| 2026-07-27 | $60.73 | $1,263,194,225,496 | 18 / 29 |
| 2026-07-28 | $60.58 | $1,263,718,907,539 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-07-29 | $60.58 | $1,263,718,907,539 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-07-30 | $60.58 | $1,263,718,907,539 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-07-31 | $60.57 | $1,264,086,480,963 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-01 | $60.57 | $1,264,086,480,963 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-02 | $60.57 | $1,264,086,480,963 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-03 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-04 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-05 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-06 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-07 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-08 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-09 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-10 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-11 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-12 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-13 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-14 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-15 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-16 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-17 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-18 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-19 | $60.65 | $1,265,883,760,319 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-20 | $61.00 | $1,271,232,626,839 | 18 / 28 |
| 2026-08-21 | $61.56 | $1,274,248,877,320 | 18 / 29 |
| 2026-08-22 | $62.27 | $1,274,494,883,552 | 18 / 29 |
| 2026-08-23 | $62.34 | $1,274,887,488,295 | 18 / 29 |
| 2026-08-24 | $62.35 | $1,274,219,195,618 | 18 / 29 |
| 2026-08-25 | $61.58 | $1,274,946,760,061 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-08-26 | $61.51 | $1,274,088,819,603 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-08-27 | $61.51 | $1,274,088,819,603 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-08-28 | $61.51 | $1,274,088,819,603 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-08-29 | $61.79 | $1,271,998,529,126 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-08-30 | $61.79 | $1,271,998,529,126 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-08-31 | $61.79 | $1,271,998,529,126 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-01 | $62.10 | $1,270,116,115,051 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-02 | $62.24 | $1,273,739,397,493 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-03 | $62.24 | $1,273,739,397,493 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-04 | $62.14 | $1,272,603,371,345 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-05 | $62.14 | $1,272,603,371,345 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-06 | $62.14 | $1,272,603,371,345 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-07 | $62.26 | $1,274,671,429,012 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-08 | $61.79 | $1,274,115,633,235 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-09-09 | $61.80 | $1,274,286,770,325 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-10 | $61.80 | $1,274,286,770,325 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-11 | $61.81 | $1,274,543,475,960 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-12 | $61.87 | $1,275,655,867,043 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-13 | $61.87 | $1,275,655,867,043 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-14 | $61.87 | $1,275,655,867,043 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-15 | $61.82 | $1,274,629,044,504 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-16 | $61.81 | $1,274,457,907,415 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-17 | $61.79 | $1,273,944,496,145 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-18 | $61.79 | $1,273,944,496,145 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-19 | $61.79 | $1,273,944,496,145 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-20 | $61.72 | $1,274,982,526,534 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-21 | $60.88 | $1,257,607,841,997 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-22 | $61.22 | $1,260,345,782,526 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-23 | $60.99 | $1,262,292,881,198 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-24 | $60.87 | $1,260,286,223,001 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-25 | $60.90 | $1,261,015,249,569 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-26 | $60.74 | $1,261,159,699,596 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-27 | $60.74 | $1,261,159,699,596 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-28 | $60.75 | $1,261,437,018,369 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-29 | $60.76 | $1,261,590,682,664 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-09-30 | $60.68 | $1,262,617,969,477 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-01 | $60.71 | $1,263,065,345,639 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-02 | $60.60 | $1,260,943,667,288 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-10-03 | $60.76 | $1,261,197,665,576 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-10-04 | $60.76 | $1,261,197,665,576 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-10-05 | $60.76 | $1,261,192,649,597 | 18 / 30 |
| 2026-10-06 | $60.76 | $1,261,192,649,597 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-07 | $60.83 | $1,262,716,954,149 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-08 | $60.82 | $1,262,462,903,390 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-09 | $60.90 | $1,262,861,978,665 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-10 | $60.90 | $1,262,861,978,665 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-11 | $61.16 | $1,262,419,941,034 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-12 | $61.26 | $1,261,711,127,906 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-13 | $61.29 | $1,262,291,425,814 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-14 | $61.33 | $1,263,499,224,368 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-15 | $61.33 | $1,263,492,942,459 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-16 | $61.27 | $1,261,776,108,460 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-17 | $61.27 | $1,261,776,108,460 | 19 / 30 |
| 2026-10-18 | $61.29 | $1,262,113,978,619 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-19 | $61.29 | $1,262,113,978,619 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-20 | $61.29 | $1,262,113,978,619 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-21 | $61.35 | $1,263,202,039,061 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-22 | $61.63 | $1,265,032,671,984 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-23 | $61.65 | $1,265,328,160,172 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-24 | $61.55 | $1,264,905,623,553 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-25 | $61.55 | $1,264,905,623,553 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-26 | $61.59 | $1,265,750,696,791 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-27 | $61.59 | $1,265,750,696,791 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-28 | $61.67 | $1,267,440,843,269 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-29 | $61.67 | $1,267,440,843,269 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-30 | $61.67 | $1,266,556,803,080 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-10-31 | $61.53 | $1,268,113,059,274 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-11-01 | $61.53 | $1,268,113,059,274 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-11-02 | $61.53 | $1,268,113,059,274 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-11-03 | $61.59 | $1,269,464,902,098 | 19 / 31 |
| 2026-11-04 | $61.60 | $1,270,070,929,905 | 19 / 31 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 39 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.