Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$105.29+4.91%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BABA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show the economy is weak. This can hurt Alibaba's performance.
Worry ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims are much higher now.
Less concerning ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims are much lower now.
Why it matters: The report is the next named chance to check Alibaba's business trends. The inputs give no company forecast or key metric.
Watch forAlibaba reports revenue growth above zero in its Nov. 24 results.
Also watch forAlibaba reports revenue growth below zero in its Nov. 24 results.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Alibaba is doing financially. It could affect stock prices.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and profit are better than expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue and profit are worse than expected.
Why it matters: Better sector performance could help Alibaba's stock. It may show a wider recovery.
Supportive ifThe Consumer Discretionary sector is expected to do well in the next 60 days.
Worry ifSector performance continues to decline over the next 60 days.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$127 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $356 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,649 loss on $10,000 · 46.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector data says revenue is shrinking, but recent signals hint that this may change. Positive growth would ease that concern for Alibaba's consumer-facing business.
Watch forThe next reported sector revenue growth rate is above 0%.
Also watch forThe next reported sector revenue growth rate stays below 0%.
Why it matters: If the sector does better, it could help Alibaba's position in the market.
Supportive ifSector performance shows a positive trend, moving above the current -0.073089 score.
Worry ifThe sector keeps getting worse, lowering the current score to -0.073089.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key insights into Alibaba's performance and outlook. It may affect market sentiment.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth is better than what analysts expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue decline or does not meet analyst expectations.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a turnaround in the weak consumer sector.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 0% in the next earnings report on September 4, 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains negative in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the consumer sector. This could help investors feel better about Alibaba.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: CPI data can affect how much consumers spend and Alibaba's sales.
Watch forCPI shows a smaller increase than expected. This suggests prices may stay stable.
Also watch forCPI shows a bigger increase than expected. This means prices may rise and hurt spending.