Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.80-5.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BAFN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -85.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 85.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of —
BAFN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Anthony Leo: A former CEO and current director resigned from the board, representing a genuine departure of a senior figure, though his prior executive role suggests lower immediate operational impact than a sitting CEO departure.
Why it matters: The next earnings report will show how well management's strategies work. It will also show the bank's financial health.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a net profit. This means management's strategies are working well.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a net loss, suggesting ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: The asset resolution plan caused a significant loss this quarter. Future earnings will show if this plan improves the bank's financial health.
Worry ifFuture earnings report shows a net loss greater than $32.7 million due to ongoing asset resolution costs.
Less concerning ifThe next earnings report shows a net loss under $32.7 million. This suggests improvement after the issue is resolved.
Why it matters: The CEO change is important for the company's direction. Good communication can help investors.
Watch forManagement will share a clear vision and goals during the next earnings call.
Also watch forManagement is not clear about their future plans.
Why it matters: The capital raise aims to support growth. If deposits stabilize or grow, it shows confidence in the bank's future.
Supportive ifDeposits increase by at least $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifDeposits keep falling or stay the same. This shows customers lack confidence.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$240 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $596 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,650 loss on $10,000 · 56.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable management helps make better decisions. It also builds trust with investors.
Supportive ifManagement team remains stable with no further transitions for at least six months.
Worry ifAnother big management change happens in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This plan is important for managing the old SBA 7(a) loan portfolio. It helps stabilize finances.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big drop in nonperforming loans. This means better capital ratios.
Worry ifManagement says there are more delays or problems with the asset resolution plan.
Why it matters: Rogers' plans will show how he will lead the company after the transition.
Supportive ifA press release or statement about new plans from Rogers.
Worry ifNo clear news from Rogers about future plans.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it may hurt Bayfirst's performance. The financial sector has been easing lately.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 15%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 15%.
Why it matters: Alfred Rogers leads BayFirst. His leadership is important for the company's recovery. Approval will show that management is stable.
Supportive ifRegulatory approval for Alfred Rogers as CEO is received. This confirms the leadership change.
Worry ifThe company did not get regulatory approval. This will delay the CEO transition.
Why it matters: Changes in nonperforming loans show how well the company manages credit risk.
Worry ifNonperforming loans drop below $15 million. This shows good management.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans rise above $16 million. This shows worsening credit quality.
Why it matters: Trends in nonperforming loans will show how well credit risk is managed.
Worry ifNonperforming loans drop a lot. This shows good management of problem assets.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans go up. This suggests ongoing problems with credit risk management.
Why it matters: Keeping costs low is key for financial health. Good progress can build investor trust.
Supportive ifThe company shows a clear drop in costs or better efficiency in three months.
Worry ifCost reductions fail to materialize, or costs continue to rise during the CFO transition.
Why it matters: The asset resolution plan is key to improving BayFirst's financial health. If it works, it could stabilize losses.
Supportive ifProvision expense related to the asset plan may drop below $30 million next quarter.
Worry ifProvision expense stays above $30 million. This shows ongoing problems with loan performance.
Why it matters: This will show how well the company is managing its legacy loan portfolio and capital raise. Investors will look for signs of recovery or continued losses.
Watch forThe earnings report shows a net loss under $5 million. This shows improvement.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a net loss greater than $5 million, suggesting ongoing issues.
Why it matters: Opening a new branch shows commitment to growth and community banking. It may help attract new customers and deposits.
Supportive ifThe new South Tampa branch opens on schedule in September 2026.
Worry ifThe opening of the South Tampa branch is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Changes in the allowance for credit losses indicate how well the bank is managing risk in its loan portfolio. A significant increase could signal ongoing issues.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses decreases from $45.1 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses is now over $45.1 million. This shows worse credit quality.
Why it matters: The asset resolution plan's effect will show if the bank's financial health is improving. Investors will look for signs of recovery or further losses.
Watch forQ3 net loss less than $32.7 million, indicating improvement from Q2.
Also watch forQ3 lost over $32.7 million. This shows ongoing financial problems.