Bayfirst Financial Corp (BAFN)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.97+1.36%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BAFN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -87.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 86.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
BAFN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
Director — Anthony Leo: A former CEO and current director resigned from the board, representing a genuine departure of a senior figure, though his prior executive role suggests lower immediate operational impact than a sitting CEO departure.
Why it matters: BayFirst reported a $0.7 million loss in Q3 after a $32.7 million loss in Q2. More progress would support its return to profit.
Supportive ifThe next quarterly report shows net income above zero. Noninterest expense is below Q3's $12.8 million.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows a net loss, or noninterest expense rises above Q3's $12.8 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$288 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $689 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,740 loss on $10,000 · 47.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.