Banc Of California, Inc. (BANC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.92+0.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BANC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
BANC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-29
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On July 29, 2026, Banc of California, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: Strong earnings growth shows that management is focused on making more money. It also shows good business performance.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share growth exceeds 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share growth falls below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects how much money a company makes. Stability or growth shows good financial health.
Supportive ifNet interest margin is over 3.24%. This shows good management of interest income and costs.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.24%. This may mean problems with managing interest rates.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows that the company is confident in making money. It also shows they want to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.12 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend from the current $0.12 per share.
Why it matters: More deposits show customer trust and the bank's ability to get funds.
Supportive ifTotal deposits increase by more than $100 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal deposits decrease or grow by less than $50 million in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,047 loss on $10,000 · 20.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows strong financial health. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifIf dividends go up over $0.12 per share, it shows a commitment to pay back.
Worry ifNo dividend increase or a decrease may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: This change aims to boost long-term earnings and capital efficiency for future growth.
Supportive ifThe change leads to a big yield increase and better risk-weighted assets.
Worry ifThe change causes more losses or does not improve yield as expected.
Why it matters: More dividends show strong finances and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases from $0.12 in Q1 2026 to $0.14 or more.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.12 or decreases.
Why it matters: A rise in earnings would show that the balance sheet changes worked.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings show a return to profit. Net income is above $0.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows another loss. This means challenges are still present.
Why it matters: Changes in net interest margin affect profits and financial health.
Watch forNet interest margin rises above 3.24%. This shows better profits.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.20%. This may signal problems.
Why it matters: Higher loan production supports growth in interest income and reflects strong demand for loans.
Supportive ifLoan production exceeds $2.2 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifLoan production falls below $2 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Closing this loan sale is important. It helps make capital use better and lowers credit risk.
Supportive ifThe loan sale closes well. This reduces credit risk and helps capital ratios.
Worry ifThe loan sale fails to close or faces significant delays, increasing credit risk.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin shows better earnings and stronger financial health.
Supportive ifNet interest margin goes up to about 3.30% after the loan sale closes.
Worry ifNet interest margin stays below 3.13%. This shows ongoing pressure on earnings.
Why it matters: This report will show how recent actions affect earnings.
Watch forEarnings are recovering from the recent loss. This shows good strategic changes.
Also watch forEarnings are still negative or getting worse. This suggests ongoing problems despite actions.
Why it matters: The FOMC's decisions can affect interest rates and the bank's funding costs.
Watch forThe FOMC raises rates, leading to improved net interest income for the bank.
Also watch forThe FOMC cuts rates or maintains low rates, further compressing net interest margins.