Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Banner Corporation (BANR)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$70.12-2.49%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.67 → 6.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BANR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.52 per share | The company increased its quarterly dividend to $0.52. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.48 quarterly | Dividend per share: $0.52 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.52 USD per share quarterly. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20260.52 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BANR is a regional banking business with a multi-year view tied to lending, deposits, and merger execution. Earnings quality is robust and recent signals have turned mildly favorable, but management is rated volatile and the thesis remains under watch.
The valuation model places BANR as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is small and the priced-in tag is justified. Fragility is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated expectations; valuation confidence is high.
Near term, recent performance is neutral and below its industry cohort, with an earnings miss on October 21 and a history of consecutive misses. Lending has grown and core deposits reached 90% of deposits in Q3, but acquired balances contributed to growth and merger costs remain. Over the multi-year view, results depend on completing Pacific Financial integration and realizing its benefits.
The unfavorable case includes a guidance cut or Federal Reserve rate cuts, both of which could weigh on the business or its sector. The favorable case depends partly on continued strength among financial-sector peers, while BANR’s own key test is whether integration benefits emerge without weakening lending or its core deposit base.
For the next one to three years, BANR has sound earnings quality and encouraging lending and deposit trends, but recent misses and unfinished integration leave meaningful execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Banner Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.64 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $5.00 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $1.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.64 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20261.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain strong operating cash flow near $110 million quarterly | Operating cash flow is strong, rising to $109.8 million in Q1 2026. | Broken | Operating cash flow falls below $90 million quarterly | Cash from operations: $39.034M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=109 million USD per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 4, 202639,034,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 6% YoY | A primary condition in Banner Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 4.24% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20264.241965 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.63 → $6.63 · observed estimates
$0.80B → $0.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.63 | $796,633,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.61 | $795,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.61 | $795,000,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.59 | $795,233,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.59 | $795,233,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.68 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.68 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.68 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.68 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.60 | $790,428,167 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.70 | $798,500,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.70 | $798,500,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.70 | $798,500,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.70 | $798,500,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.60 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.75 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.75 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.75 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.75 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.75 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.75 | $798,500,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.60 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.60 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.60 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.60 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.60 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.60 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.63 | $790,428,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.65 | $801,061,500 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.65 | $801,061,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.65 | $801,061,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.65 | $801,061,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.65 | $801,061,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.65 | $801,061,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.65 | $801,061,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.65 | $801,061,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.66 | $801,364,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.67 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.67 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.67 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.67 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.67 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.67 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.67 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.68 | $802,064,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.66 | $799,080,833 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.64 | $797,447,500 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.64 | $797,447,500 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.61 | $796,914,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.61 | $796,914,167 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.63 | $794,313,333 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.