BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.22-13.28%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BBAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 89.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 69.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BBAI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-27
disclosure. The Company will hold a conference call on Tuesday, October 27, 2026 at 4:30 p.m. to discuss the financial results. The information provided in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 of this Current Report, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any of the Company's fi…
Why it matters: Cash and investments fell from $431.5 million in Q1 to $409.8 million in Q2. Staying above $400 million would show the balance remains strong.
Supportive ifA later report shows cash and investments above $400 million.
Worry ifA later report shows cash and investments below $400 million.
Why it matters: Ask Sage products helped lift gross margin in both reported quarters. A margin above 32% would show those gains held.
Supportive ifA later quarter reports gross margin above 32%.
Worry ifA later quarter reports gross margin below 30%, after 34.0% in Q1 and 32.8% in Q2.
Why it matters: The company kept its $135 million to $165 million revenue range. Results above the low end would show it met its stated plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $135 million, the low end of the stated range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $135 million, or the company cuts its range below that level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$242 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $759 loss on $10,000 · 7.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,043 loss on $10,000 · 70.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.