BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.92-2.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BBAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 111.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 93.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BBAI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-31
Other Events. On July 31, 2026, BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an Open Market Sale Agreement TM (the “Sales Agreement”) with Jefferies LLC, as sales agent (the “sales agent”), pursuant to which the Company may, from time to time, sell up to an aggregate of 100,000,000 shares (the “Shares”) of its common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), through the sales agent. The offer and sales under the Sales Agreement will be made pursuant to the Company’s r…
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would signal ongoing struggles. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings report shows revenue is less than what analysts expected.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 earnings report meets or is better than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising gross margins shows good cost control and product choices.
Supportive ifGross margin over 32.8% shows growth from higher margin products.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 32.8%, suggesting challenges in cost control.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance is key to showing growth momentum. The company aims for $135 million to $165 million in 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue meets or exceeds $34.4 million, keeping on track for full-year guidance.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is under $30 million. This shows problems in meeting yearly goals.
Why it matters: News about mergers and acquisitions can change growth and market position a lot.
Watch forAnnouncement of a significant M&A deal in Q4 2026.
Also watch forNo news or updates about mergers and acquisitions by the end of Q4 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$259 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $773 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,093 loss on $10,000 · 70.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below zero, it signals deeper issues in the business. This could indicate a loss of market position or demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported at less than 0%.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains positive year over year.
Why it matters: Progress on M&A could signal growth momentum and strategic positioning for 2027.
Watch forAnnouncement of a specific M&A deal or target in Q3.
Also watch forNo updates or progress on M&A by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: The earnings report will share updates on revenue and operating income. This is important for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue meets or exceeds $34.4 million from Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue falls below $34.4 million from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in gross profit shows better financial performance. It also suggests potential for profit.
Supportive ifGross profit increases from $11.7 million in Q1 2026 to above $12 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross profit declines or stays below $11.7 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings that meet or exceed expectations can boost investor confidence. It helps validate the growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings meet or beat what analysts expect.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings miss expectations again.
Why it matters: M&A can help growth. Updates show management's plans and how they fit in the market.
Watch forAnnouncement of a specific M&A deal that aligns with growth strategy.
Also watch forNo updates or failed attempts at M&A activity in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. It shows the company can make money.
Supportive ifOperating income improves from -$24.3 million in Q1 2026 to less than -$20 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or stays above -$24.3 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would worry investors about the company's financial goals. This could change how investors feel.
Worry ifEarnings report shows a loss greater than the previous earnings miss disclosed on May 5, 2026.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit compared to the previous earnings miss.
Why it matters: Management keeps saying revenue will grow. This shows they are doing well and can grow.
Supportive ifManagement will confirm revenue guidance of $135 million to $165 million soon.
Worry ifManagement cuts the revenue forecast to less than $135 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue shows BigBear.ai is on track for its full-year guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue of $36.7 million or higher confirms growth trajectory.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is under $36.7 million. This shows possible growth problems.
Why it matters: This will show if the company can maintain its growth trend. A drop below 13% could signal trouble.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth was below 13% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported at or above 13% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Growing margins show good cost control and better product choices. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin reported above 32.8% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 32.8% in Q3.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss means better financial health. It also shows improved operations.
Supportive ifNet loss reported less than $(25.7) million in Q3.
Worry ifNet loss reported greater than $(25.7) million in Q3.
Why it matters: Successful acquisitions could drive growth and improve market position. This is a new focus for management.
Supportive ifThey announced a deal that will add value by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNo M&A announcements made by the end of 2026.