Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Beta Bionics, Inc. (BBNX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$15.49-8.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BBNX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin improves to at least 57.5% in 2026 | Gross margin is expected to improve to about 58.5%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 57.5% in 2026 | Gross margin: 57.26% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 57.5% gross margin in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 202657.262357 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making growth business with elevated risk, rather than a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: pharmacy-channel sales have grown, but recent financial performance is weak and company momentum has fallen.
The valuation model shows a premium of 2.17 versus peers, with a durable premium as the main reason for the gap. Expectations appear demanding, though confidence in the valuation model is low; the evidence does not show high pricing fragility.
Near term, revenue growth and improved gross margin offer support, but Q3 margin remained below the full-year goal and the company reiterated a revenue range it had lowered in September. The Mint has FDA clearance, but its U.S. launch and planned production remain ahead, while losses, weak recent performance, and elevated risk remain important concerns.
The multi-year thesis depends on the Q1 2027 Mint launch proceeding and planned production capacity becoming commercially useful. It also hinges on continued pharmacy-channel growth and improved margins; guidance cuts or a weaker economy could hurt confidence, while continued strong results from healthcare peers would support the sector backdrop.
BBNX has evidence of channel growth and margin improvement, but the business remains loss-making and execution is not yet established. The 1-to-3-year view hinges on delivering the Mint launch and translating growth into stronger financial performance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Estimated gross margin of 58.5% to 59.5% (no change versus previous guidance).” “3D Intelligence is designed with three algorithm experiences intended to enable a more customizable treatment approach tailored to each user’s unique insulin requirements.”
Full commercialization of Mint by end of Q2 2027 | A primary condition in Beta Bionics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Mint fully commercialized by 2027-Q2. | Improving | Mint commercialization delayed beyond 2027-Q2 | FDA clearance obtained 2026-09-14; launch targeted Q1 2027 vs 2027-Q2 target FDA cleared Mint on Sept 14, 2026; company targets full US commercial launch in Q1 2027. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
2026 revenue reaches at least $131 million | A primary condition in Beta Bionics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $131 million revenue in 2026. | Intact | 2026 revenue falls below $131 million | Revenue: $35.505M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $131 million revenue in 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 27, 202635,505,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.39 → $-2.13 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.39 | $179,547,530 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.39 | $179,547,530 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.39 | $179,547,530 | 3 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.16 | $179,551,526 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.42 | $179,547,530 | 2 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.42 | $179,291,020 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.34 | $179,942,200 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.16 | $179,508,210 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.31 | $179,764,670 | 2 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.15 | $179,762,755 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-2.15 | $179,651,709 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-2.15 | $179,621,459 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-2.15 | $179,621,459 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-2.15 | $179,621,459 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-2.29 | $181,490,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-2.29 | $181,490,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-2.29 | $181,490,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-2.29 | $181,490,528 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-2.22 | $181,492,778 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-2.22 | $181,492,778 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-2.22 | $181,492,778 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-2.22 | $181,492,778 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-2.22 | $181,492,778 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-2.18 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-2.18 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-2.18 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-2.18 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-2.18 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-2.18 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-2.14 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-2.14 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-2.14 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-2.14 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-2.14 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-2.14 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-2.14 | $182,154,872 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-2.10 | $182,154,872 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-2.10 | $182,154,872 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-2.10 | $182,154,872 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-2.10 | $182,152,795 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-2.10 | $182,152,795 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.08 | $182,641,881 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.11 | $183,657,588 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.10 | $185,063,906 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.14 | $185,063,906 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.14 | $185,063,906 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.14 | $185,063,906 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.14 | $185,063,906 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.13 | $184,650,620 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.13 | $184,650,620 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-2.13 | $184,650,620 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.