Beta Bionics, Inc. (BBNX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$19.42-2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BBNX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 36.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers
BBNX — litigation filed
Dated 2026-01-30
Other Events. On January 29, 2026, Beta Bionics, Inc. (the “Company”) received a warning letter (the “Warning Letter”) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (the “FDA”) following inspection of the Company’s facility in Irvine, California that occurred from June 9, 2025 through June 26, 2025. In the Warning Letter, the FDA cited deficiencies in the response letters sent by the Company to the FDA following the FDA’s issuance of a Form 483, List of Investigational Observations (the “Form 48…
Why it matters: Updates on Mint's timeline show how well it is handling rules and operations.
Supportive ifA press release confirming FDA clearance for Mint's 510(k) application.
Worry ifNo news or delays in the Mint selling timeline.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance show how management views the business and market.
Watch forManagement raises revenue guidance to more than $136 million for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $131 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance shows the business is doing well. It also shows market trust.
Supportive ifBeta Bionics raises 2026 revenue guidance above $136 million in Q3.
Worry ifBeta Bionics lowers 2026 revenue guidance below $131 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth in the sector could help Beta Bionics do better.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$254 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $716 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,230 loss on $10,000 · 72.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive feedback could speed up the Mint product launch, a key priority for the company.
Supportive ifA press release says the FDA gave good responses to the Mint application.
Worry ifA press release indicating delays or negative feedback from the FDA.
Why it matters: FDA clearance is key for launching the Mint patch pump. Success here could boost sales.
Supportive ifThe FDA cleared Mint. This allows it to be sold as planned.
Worry ifFDA denies clearance or delays the decision beyond mid-2027.
Why it matters: FDA approval is crucial for launching the Mint patch pump. This could boost sales and market presence.
Supportive ifFDA grants clearance for the Mint patch pump, allowing commercialization by mid-2027.
Worry ifFDA delays or denies clearance for the Mint patch pump, pushing back the launch timeline.
Why it matters: The growth rate of new patient starts indicates demand for Beta Bionics' products. A strong growth rate supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew patient starts increase by more than 20% sequentially compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifNew patient starts decline or grow less than 10% sequentially compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better gross margins are important for financial health. A strong margin helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 59.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 58.5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows the company is on track to meet its financial targets for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is confirmed at or above $131 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is revised down below $131 million.