Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$30.39-8.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.00 → 2.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BBSI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows from $1.88 in 2026 to $2.15 in 2027 | The company pays a stable quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $1.88 in FY26 or below $2.15 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $0.69 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.88 in 2026 and >= $2.15 in 2027. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 5, 20260.69 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a business-execution thesis, not a clear turnaround or durable compounder signal from the current evidence. The thesis is in a watch state, with elevated risk and medium confidence.
BBSI is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is modest and model confidence is low. The valuation signal is marked justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations being priced in.
Near term, gross billings growth is tracking management’s 3% to 4% 2026 goal, and gross margin improved to slightly above its stated range in Q2. Worksite employee growth remains below its 2% to 3% goal, while a recent earnings miss and performance below the industry cohort temper the picture.
The multi-year view depends on whether BBSI can lift worksite employee growth while sustaining billing growth and margins. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal; continued strong results and guidance from sector peers could support the backdrop, while peer weakness could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on management turning steady billing growth and improved margins into stronger employee growth, against elevated risk and a weak recent performance comparison. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain gross margin between 2.7% and 2.85% for 2026 |
| A primary condition in Barrett Business Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 2.7% to 2.85%. |
| Under Pressure |
| gross margin falls below 2.7% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 21.75% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 2.7% to 2.85%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202621.753746 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow average number of worksite employees (WSEs) by 2% to 4% in 2026 | A primary condition in Barrett Business Services, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 2% to 4% growth. | Intact | WSE growth falls below 2% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.15 → $2.00 · observed estimates
$1.38B → $1.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.22 | $1,376,679,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.22 | $1,376,679,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.15 | $1,376,662,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.22 | $1,376,662,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.22 | $1,376,662,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.03 | $1,378,448,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.02 | $1,358,410,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.02 | $1,358,410,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.02 | $1,358,410,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.02 | $1,358,410,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.02 | $1,358,410,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.02 | $1,358,410,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.03 | $1,378,448,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.03 | $1,378,448,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.03 | $1,378,448,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.03 | $1,378,448,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.03 | $1,378,448,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.03 | $1,378,448,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.03 | $1,378,448,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.00 | $1,396,322,500 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.