Barrett Business Services, Inc. (BBSI)
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$30.39-8.19%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsStaffing & Employment ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BBSI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BBSI — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, Barrett Business Services, Inc. (the “Company”), issued a news release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. The release also provides management’s expectations for certain key performance metrics for 2026. A copy of the news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and incorporated by reference.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin reached 2.8%, above the 2026 target range. Management says client pricing is improving, but claims adjustments helped less.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is at least 2.70% of gross billings, and management keeps its 2.70% to 2.75% full-year range.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 2.70%, or management cuts its full-year margin range.
Why it matters: Q2 average WSE growth was 0.5%, below the 2% to 3% full-year goal. Hiring is management's main growth headwind.
Supportive ifQ3 average WSEs grow at least 2% year over year, with management keeping its 2% to 3% 2026 goal.
Worry ifQ3 average WSE growth stays at or below 0.5%, or management lowers its 2026 WSE goal.
Why it matters: Workers' compensation costs were 2.5% of gross billings in Q2, versus 2.1% a year earlier. Smaller past-claim gains also weighed on results.
Supportive ifQ3 workers' compensation costs fall below 2.5% of gross billings, without larger past-year claim gains than Q2's $2.0 million.
Worry ifQ3 costs rise above 2.5% of gross billings, or results rely on larger past-year claim gains than Q2's $2.0 million.
Why it matters: Gross billings grew 3% in Q2, at the low end of the 2026 goal. A further slowdown would put that goal at risk.
Worry ifQ3 gross billings grow below 3% year over year, or management lowers its 3% to 4% 2026 goal.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross billings grow at least 3% year over year, and management keeps the full-year goal unchanged.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,396 loss on $10,000 · 34.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.